Data from: Validating dispersal distances inferred from autoregressive occupancy models with genetic parentage assignments

1.Dispersal distances are commonly inferred from occupancy data but have
rarely been validated. Estimating dispersal from occupancy data is further
complicated by imperfect detection and the presence of unsurveyed patches.
2.We compared dispersal distances inferred from seven years of occupancy
data for 212 wetlands in a metapopulation of the secretive and threatened
California black rail (Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus) to distances
between parent-offspring dyads identified with 16 microsatellites. 3.We
used a novel autoregressive multi-season occupancy model that accounted
for both unsurveyed patches and imperfect detection to quantify patch
isolation using buffer radius (BRM) and incidence function (IFM)
connectivity measures at 15 scales (1–10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 km).
Connectivity measures were then fit as colonization covariates in
occupancy models to estimate a model-averaged dispersal distance. 4.As
predicted, colonization was more strongly related to connectivity at small
spatial scales (< 10 km). AIC weights were greatest at 7 km for BRM
and at 4 km for IFM. 5.Model-averaged dispersal distances (BRM = 7.46 km;
IFM = 5.48 km) showed good agreement with the mean (± SE) dispersal
distance from 23 parent-offspring dyads (5.58 ± 1.92 km), indicating
reasonably accurate mean dispersal distances can be inferred from
occupancy data when isolation strongly affects colonization.

1. 扩散距离通常可通过占据数据（occupancy data）推断得出，但此类推断极少得到验证。此外，由于存在不完全检测以及未调查斑块的影响，基于占据数据估算扩散距离的过程会更为复杂。
2. 本研究针对生性隐秘且受威胁的加州黑秧鸡（Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus）的集合种群，对其212处湿地的7年占据数据所推断得到的扩散距离，与通过16个微卫星标记（microsatellites）鉴定得到的亲子对之间的实际距离进行了对比。
3. 本研究采用了一种全新的自回归多季占据模型，该模型可同时考量未调查斑块与不完全检测的影响，基于15种空间尺度（1~10 km、15 km、20 km、25 km及30 km）下的缓冲半径（buffer radius, BRM）与发生函数（incidence function, IFM）连通性度量指标对斑块隔离程度进行量化。随后将连通性度量指标作为定殖协变量纳入占据模型，以估算模型平均扩散距离。
4. 正如预测所示，定殖事件与小空间尺度（<10 km）下的连通性关联更为紧密。其中缓冲半径（BRM）指标的AIC权重在7 km处达到峰值，发生函数（IFM）指标的AIC权重则在4 km处达到峰值。
5. 模型平均扩散距离（BRM=7.46 km；IFM=5.48 km）与23组亲子对得到的平均扩散距离（均值±标准误（standard error）：5.58±1.92 km）吻合度良好，这表明当斑块隔离对定殖过程存在显著影响时，可通过占据数据较为准确地推断得到平均扩散距离。