Replication Data for: Democratic Commitment in the Middle East: A Conjoint Analysis

Polls from the Middle East/North Africa show high support for democracy. However, the veracity of this support has been called into question. This study uses a conjoint analysis to show that citizens support democratic institutions, as well as favoring an effective welfare state and a state religion. The results demonstrate that support for elected governance is not contingent on the state’s providing economic benefits; citizens are more likely to favor participatory government at each level of economic outcome. Interest in incorporating religion in the state, however, is contingent on the political and economic profile described; the contingent effects suggest interest in Islamic governance is, at least partly, instrumental. Although pro-democracy public opinion alone does not secure democratization, it creates fertile ground for future democratization movements.

中东与北非地区的民调结果显示，当地民众对民主制度抱有高度支持态度。然而，此类支持的真实性却饱受质疑。本研究采用联合分析（conjoint analysis）方法，证实民众不仅支持民主制度，同时也青睐高效的福利国家与国教体制。研究结果表明，民众对民选治理的支持并不以国家提供经济福利为前提；在任意经济成果水平下，民众均更倾向于支持参与式治理。不过，民众对将宗教纳入国家体制的兴趣，取决于其所处的政治与经济特征；此类情境效应显示，民众对伊斯兰治理的诉求至少部分带有工具性色彩。尽管仅靠支持民主的公众舆论无法确保民主化进程的实现，但它为未来的民主化运动创造了有利土壤。