Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022

In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states’ economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations.

本文旨在探讨欧盟委员会（European Commission）关于财政政策的理念在欧盟学期（European Semester）周期内的演变路径与背后动因。实证层面，本文采用半监督缩放法（semi-supervised scaling approach），对2011年金融危机后至2022年期间的欧盟学期政策文件中出现的经济理念进行识别。研究发现，欧盟委员会的经济理念呈现出从秩序自由主义（ordoliberal）向凯恩斯主义（Keynesian）方向的渐进式转变，这一趋势在冯德莱恩任期与新冠疫情（Covid-19）危机重叠的年份尤为显著。本文还识别出2011至2022年间各成员国存在显著的国别异质性差异：部分成员国仅获得凯恩斯主义导向的政策建议，而另一部分成员国则得到鲜明的秩序自由主义取向的建议。这些模式在一定程度上可由成员国的经济状况予以解释，但无法通过公众对欧盟的信任度加以说明。本研究结果凸显了欧盟委员会经济意识形态的回应性特征：各类危机与成员国的经济状况共同塑造了其财政政策建议的导向。