Lack of synchronized breeding success in a seabird community: extreme events, niche separation, and environmental variability

Synchrony in ecological systems, the degree to which elements respond similarly over time or space, can inform our understanding of how ecosystems function and how they are responding to global change. While studies of ecological synchrony are often focused on within-species dynamics, synchrony among species may provide important insights into how dynamics of one species are indicative of conditions relevant to the larger community, with both basic and applied implications. Ecological theory suggests there may be conditions under which communities might exhibit increased synchrony, however the degree to which these patterns are borne out in natural systems is currently unknown. We used long-term breeding success data from a community of Antarctic seabirds to assess the degree of interspecific, community synchrony and the role that extreme events play in driving these dynamics. We assessed theoretical links between community synchrony, niche separation, and environmental variability usin...

生态系统同步性（ecological synchrony）指各生态组分在时间或空间维度上的响应模式相似程度，可为我们理解生态系统运行机制及其对全球变化的响应方式提供关键参考。尽管当前生态同步性研究多聚焦于物种种内动态，但物种种间同步性或能揭示单一物种种群动态如何反映更大尺度群落的相关环境条件，兼具基础与应用研究价值。生态学理论指出，部分条件下群落或会表现出同步性增强的特征，但目前尚不明确这些理论模式在自然生态系统中的实际验证程度。本研究依托南极海鸟群落的长期繁殖成功率数据，评估种间群落同步性（community synchrony）程度，以及极端事件在驱动此类种群动态中发挥的作用。本研究对群落同步性、生态位分化（niche separation）与环境变异性（environmental variability）之间的理论关联进行了分析，所用