CMIP6-LOCA2 threshold and extreme event metric projections from 1950-2100 for the Contiguous United States

Projections of extreme event metrics and threshold exceedances are produced by analyzing the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 Localized Constructed Analogs (CMIP6-LOCA2) data set. The primary daily temperature and precipitation data are summarized to 36 annual metrics and 4 monthly metrics. This data set includes output from 27 GCMs for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States with partial coverage in Mexico and Canada. To support climate research within and outside the Department of Interior these data are distributed in a variety of formats: individual model grids for all years, gridded climatologies (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and Global Warming Levels +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C, +3.0 °C), and time series spatially averaged to United States county and watershed boundaries (HUC8 from the Watershed Boundary Dataset). Ensemble averages are provided for the Weighted Multi-Model Mean (WMMM) and Multi-Model Mean (MMM) where appropriate. Many of the threshold exceedance variables stem from the Climdex project (https://www.climdex.org), which predominately uses metric units. Additional English-based thresholds were included to support Department of Interior research.

There are 72 simulations in total (ssp245=24, ssp370=23, ssp585=25). While the CMIP6-LOCA2 data set supports multiple realizations per model; one realization per model is provided herein (predominately r1i1p1f1, except when this realization was not available). Users interested in the source downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the data set home page: https://loca.ucsd.edu.

The 27 included GCMs are:
ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1

The 40 included variables are:

variable
name
units
frequency

CDD
Consecutive Dry Days
days
annual

CWD
Consecutive Wet Days
days
annual

DTR
Daily temperature range
°C
annual

FD
Frost Days
days
annual

GDD10
Growing degree days, base 10 °C
°C d
annual

GDD5
Growing degree days, base 5 °C
°C d
annual

GSL
Growing season length
days
annual

ID
Ice Days
days
annual

PRCPTOT
Annual total wet-day PR
mm
annual

R10mm
Number of heavy rain days
days
annual

R1in
Annual days with total precipitation > 1 inch
days
annual

R1mm
Number of rain days
days
annual

R20mm
Number of very heavy rain days
days
annual

R2in
Annual days with total precipitation > 2 inch
days
annual

R3in
Annual days with total precipitation > 3 inch
days
annual

R40mm
Annual count of days when PRCP ≥ 40mm
days
annual

R95p
Annual total PRCP when RR > 95th percentile
mm
annual

R95pDAYS
Days when RR > 95th percentile
days
annual

R95pTOT
Contribution to total precipitation from very wet days
%
annual

R99p
Annual total PRCP when RR > 99th percentile
mm
annual

R99pDAYS
Days when RR > 99th percentile
days
annual

R99pTOT
Contribution to total precipitation from extremely wet days
%
annual

Rx1day
Maximum 1-day precipitation
mm
annual

Rx5day
Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation
mm
annual

SDII
Daily PR intensity
mm/day
annual

SU
Summer days
days
annual

TNn
Minimum value of daily minimum temperature
°C
monthly

TNx
Maximum value of daily minimum temperature
°C
monthly

TR
Tropical nights
days
annual

TX90p
Percentage of days when TX > 90th percentile
%
annual

TX90pDAYS
Number of days when TX > 90th percentile
days
annual

TX95p
Percentage of days when TX > 95th percentile
%
annual

TX95pDAYS
Number of days when TX > 95th percentile
days
annual

TXge100F
TX of greater than or equal to 100 °F
days
annual

TXge105F
TX of greater than or equal to 105 °F
days
annual

TXge110F
TX of greater than or equal to 110 °F
days
annual

TXge90F
TX of greater than or equal to 90 °F
days
annual

TXge95F
TX of greater than or equal to 95 °F
days
annual

TXn
Minimum value of daily maximum temperature
°C
monthly

TXx
Maximum value of daily maximum temperature
°C
monthly