Potential for adaptation in Mediterranean croplands under climate change

The Mediterranean Basin has been identified as a global climate change hotspot due to projected above-average increases in warming and drying. Increasing scientific attention has therefore been drawn to the repercussions of climate change for the Mediterranean’s diverse and valued agricultural sector. The extent to which these repercussions vary throughout the region, owing to uneven adaptive capacities of farmers, remains however unquantified. We hereby present the results of a mapping study illustrating the potential to implement farm-level adaptations to increased drought and heat stress across Mediterranean croplands. The selected adaptations addressed the potential to implement (1) irrigation expansion in rain-fed areas, (2) drip irrigation within irrigated areas, (3-4) crop and crop variety changes, and the implementation of (5) reduced tillage and (6) conservation agriculture. The potentials are shown in a dimensionless index (between 1-10, indicating low to high suitability respectively), based on spatial proxies for the socio-economic and biophysical determinants of each adaptation, identified by reviewing scientific literature from the region. In combination with information on changing average climatic conditions, alongside frequency and duration of climatic extremes, these maps enable an exploration on the extent to which adaptation potentials align with adaptation needs under a changing climate. All files are at a 10km2 resolution. We refer the reader to the related publication and affiliated supplementary materials for a comprehensive overview of the methodological details.

地中海盆地（Mediterranean Basin）因预估的变暖与干旱化幅度高于全球平均水平，被认定为全球气候变化热点区域。因此，学界对气候变化给地中海地区多样且极具价值的农业部门带来的影响日益关注。不过，由于农户适应能力存在区域差异，这些影响在整个区域的异质性仍未得到量化。本研究呈现一项制图研究的成果，展示了地中海农田针对日益加剧的干旱与热胁迫开展农场级适应措施的潜力。本次选取的适应措施包括：(1) 雨养区灌溉扩张、(2) 灌溉区滴灌改造、(3-4) 作物及作物品种更换，以及(5) 少耕与(6) 保护性农业（conservation agriculture）的实施。基于通过梳理该区域学术文献所确定的各项适应措施的社会经济与生物物理决定因素的空间代理指标，我们构建了一个无量纲指数（取值区间为1至10，分别代表适配性从低到高）以展示上述适配潜力。结合平均气候条件变化、极端气候事件发生频率与持续时间等信息，这些制图结果可用于探索在气候变化背景下，适应潜力与适应需求的匹配程度。所有数据集的空间分辨率均为10平方千米。如需了解方法细节的全面概述，请参阅相关发表论文及附属补充材料。