Data from: Assessing the sustainability of African lion trophy hunting, with recommendations for policy

While trophy hunting provides revenue for conservation, it must be carefully managed to avoid negative population impacts, particularly for long-lived species with low natural mortality rates. Trophy hunting has had negative effects on lion populations throughout Africa, and the species serves as an important case study to consider the balance of costs and benefits, and to consider the effectiveness of alternative strategies to conserve exploited species. Age-restricted harvesting is widely recommended to mitigate negative effects of lion hunting, but this recommendation was based on a population model parameterized with data from a well-protected and growing lion population. Here, we used demographic data from lions subject to more typical conditions, including source-sink dynamics between a protected National Park and adjacent hunting areas in Zambia’s Luangwa Valley, to develop a stochastic population projection model and evaluate alternative harvest scenarios. Hunting resulted in population declines over a 25-year period for all continuous harvest strategies, with large declines for quotas greater than 1 lion/concession (~0.5 lion/1000 km2) and hunting of males younger than 7 years. A strategy that combined periods of recovery, an age limit of ≥ 7 years and a maximum quota of ~0.5 lions shot per 1000 km2 yielded a risk of extirpation < 10%. Our analysis incorporated the effects of human encroachment, poaching and prey depletion on survival, but assumed that these problems will not increase, which is unlikely. These results suggest conservative management of lion trophy hunting with a combination of regulations. To implement sustainable trophy hunting while maintaining revenue for conservation of hunting areas, our results suggest that hunting fees must increase as a consequence of diminished supply. These findings are broadly applicable to hunted lion populations throughout Africa, and to inform global efforts to conserve exploited carnivore populations.

尽管战利品狩猎（Trophy hunting）可为保护工作创收，但需对其实施精细化管控，以规避对种群的负面影响，针对自然死亡率偏低的长寿物种，此点尤需重视。战利品狩猎已对非洲全域的野生狮子种群造成负面影响，而狮子亦是权衡狩猎保护的成本与收益、探索受开发物种保护替代策略有效性的典型研究案例。
学界长期推荐实施年龄限制型狩猎，以缓解狮子狩猎的负面影响，但该推荐结论的依据，是基于受严格保护且种群处于增长态势的狮子种群数据构建的种群模型。本研究则依托赞比亚卢安瓜河谷某受保护国家公园与周边毗邻狩猎区之间的源汇动态（source-sink dynamics）等更符合野生种群典型生存条件的狮子种群统计数据，构建随机种群预测模型（stochastic population projection model），并对多种狩猎开发方案开展评估。
所有持续狩猎方案均会导致种群在25年周期内出现衰退，当狩猎配额超过每特许狩猎区1头狮子（约合每1000平方公里0.5头狮子），且狩猎对象为7岁以下雄性狮子时，种群衰退幅度尤为显著。若采用设置恢复期、设定7岁及以上年龄限制、且最大狩猎配额为每1000平方公里猎杀约0.5头狮子的组合策略，则种群局部灭绝（extirpation）风险低于10%。
本分析纳入了人类侵占、偷猎及猎物枯竭对狮子存活的影响，但假设上述威胁不会加剧——而这一假设并不符合实际。上述结果表明，需通过多重监管措施对狮子战利品狩猎实施保守化管控。
若要在维持狩猎区保护工作收入的同时实现战利品狩猎的可持续性，研究结果显示，由于狩猎供给量缩减，狩猎费用需相应上调。本研究结论可广泛适配非洲全域受狩猎开发的狮子种群，亦可为全球保护受开发食肉动物种群的工作提供决策参考。