Climate harshness, Opportunity, and Environmental Violence

Will climate change affect how armed actors behave toward civilians? Scholars analyzed different links between environmental variability and war, but research on links between the former and violence against civilians is very limited. Focusing on the Sahara Desert transition zone, which stretches across the entire African continent, we argue that climate harshness raises the willingness of actors to engage in competitive violence over resources. An underlying condition is this violence happens in times of greater environmental security, which provides opportunity for actors to engage in violence. We test this argument using statistical analysis of a newly released climate-conflict geospatial dataset and find support for this theoretical expectation. The conclusion outlines both research and policy implications.

气候变化是否会影响武装行为体（armed actors）对待平民的行为模式？学界已围绕环境变率（environmental variability）与战争的多种关联展开研究，但针对环境变率与针对平民的暴力行为之间关联的研究仍较为匮乏。本研究聚焦横贯整个非洲大陆的撒哈拉沙漠过渡带，提出核心论点：气候严酷性会提升行为体围绕资源实施竞争性暴力的意愿。此类暴力行为发生的前提条件是，所处时段的环境安全性相对更高，为行为体开展暴力活动提供了契机。本研究依托新发布的气候-冲突地理空间数据集（climate-conflict geospatial dataset）开展统计分析，对上述论点进行实证检验，结果验证了该理论预期。结语部分同时阐明了本研究在学术研究与政策制定两方面的启示。