Data for: Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand with an Application to Korea

Abstract of associated article: It is widely accepted that long-run elasticities of demand for electricity are not stable over time. We model long-run sectoral electricity demand using a time-varying cointegrating vector. Specifically, the coefficient on income (residential sector) or output (commercial and industrial sectors) is allowed to follow a smooth semiparametric function of time, providing a flexible specification that allows more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than either fixed or discretely changing regression coefficients. We fit the model to Korean data over 1995:01-2012:12 for the residential sector and 1985:01-2012:12 for the commercial and industrial sectors. The rapid development of Korea over this period provides a very clear case for allowing the coefficient on income/output to vary over time, but the essential modeling strategy is widely applicable.

关联论文摘要：学界普遍认为，电力需求的长期弹性并非随时间保持恒定。本文采用时变协整向量（time-varying cointegrating vector）模型对分部门电力长期需求进行建模。具体而言，居民部门的收入系数、商业与工业部门的产出系数，均可设定为随时间平滑变化的半参数函数（semiparametric function）；该灵活的模型设定形式，相较固定系数或离散变动的回归系数模型，能够实现更精准的样本外预测（out-of-sample forecasts）。本文将该模型拟合至韩国相关数据，其中居民部门的样本区间为1995年1月至2012年12月，商业与工业部门的样本区间为1985年1月至2012年12月。韩国在该时期的快速发展，为收入/产出系数随时间变动的建模设定提供了极具说服力的典型案例，但本文所提出的核心建模策略具备广泛的适用性。