Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case of Great Ruaha River Subbasin, Tanzania, 2021

This study undertook extensive fieldwork and data collection in the Rufiji Basin, conducted from September 27th to October 8th, 2021. The primary objectives were to introduce the Research Assistants (RA’s) and the RESBEN project to the Rufiji Basin Water Board (RBWB), establish valuable contacts, select sample sites for qualitative work, and gain a comprehensive understanding of the district and catchments under examination. Key aims included the collection of climate data, hydrological reports, water abstraction data, and insights into local irrigation schemes and water abstraction points. The data collected during the first phase encompassed water abstraction records, rainfall data from 17 stations, streamflow data from 14 stations, borehole data including location, depths, and yields, and reservoir data such as turbine discharge, spillway discharge, net evaporation, and elevation-volume curves.
The study's main objective was to optimize water allocation among competing users in the Great Ruaha River subbasin. The research sought to answer critical questions concerning the effects of climate change on water availability, variations in surface and groundwater potential, and the optimization of water allocation considering diverse climatic and development circumstances. The study's results have been effectively shared to water users, watershed managers, and other stakeholders via a Systemic Adaptive Management (SAM) workshop.<p>Sustainable water resource development remains elusive because development has largely externalized costs to the environment and vulnerable people. There is a need for novel research theory, methodologies & practice in order to meet the UN SDGs and realise the Africa Water Vision 2025. We propose to launch an innovative research approach: the Adaptive Systemic Approach (ASA). Our aim is to apply transformative, transdisciplinary, community-engaged research, to shift water development outcomes towards achieving the SDGs. We focus on continental water development priorities: water supply and pollution.
This collaboration brings together the ARUA Water Centre of Excellence (CoE) and UK partner, the University of Sheffield (UoS). The 8 CoE nodes are: i) Addis Ababa U, Ethiopia; U Rwanda, Rwanda; U Cheikh Anta Diop, Senegal; Dar es Salaam U, Tanzania, Makerere U, Uganda (DAC least developed); ii) U Lagos, Nigeria (DAC lower-middle income); and iii) U Cape Town, Rhodes U (CoE Hub), South Africa (DAC upper-middle income).
We propose a country-based Case Study structure to support local research development and pathways to local impact (Figure 1 in Case for Support). We use an SDG6 (water and sanitation) centred model, that links SDGs related to landscape water resources with SDGs related to water services. (This model underpins the successful UKRI:GCRF Capability Grant:"Water for African SDGs"). We raise three research questions (RQ) related to water development priorities. Three catchment-based Case Studies address RQ1: HOW IS WATER USED, TO WHOSE BENEFIT? (Rufigi R Tanzania, Senegal R Senegal, and Blue Nile R Ethiopia). Two Case Studies focus on urban water pollution (Kampala City Uganda and Lagos City Nigeria), addressing RQ2: WHAT ARE THE SOURCES, PATHWAYS AND IMPACT OF POLLUTION IN URBAN WATER SYSTEMS? A cross-cutting Case Study addresses water resource protection and biodiversity in all CSs, and a biodiversity site in Rwanda.
By the completion of the project we commit to leaving local people effectively linked with institutions making decisions about water that affect them. Therefore all Case Studies address the question RQ3: HOW CAN LOCAL CAPACITY TO ENGAGE IN PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE BE DEVELOPED FOR: I) EQUITABLE WATER SHARING, II) COMMUNITY POLLUTION RESILIENCE, AND III) ECOSYSTEM PROTECTION AND RESTORATION?
The novel Adaptive Systemic Approach (ASA) provides a coherent methodological framework that will support Case Study comparisons, changed water development practice, and will embed pathways to impact throughout the project. The ASA requires engaged research, and draws on three core theoretical concepts, with associated methods: Complex Social-Ecological Systems, Transdisciplinarity, and Transformative Social Learning (Elaborated in Case for Support).
These concepts underpin four ASA steps, followed in each Case Study: 1. BOUND: Researchers engage with a full range of stakeholders to identify a relevant, local, water-development issue, and scope the Case Study. 2. ADAPTIVE PLANNING PROCESS: Stakeholders co-create a contextually informed vision of the future state of their selected local issue, and co-develop an objectives hierarchy to move towards resolving the issue. 3. CONCURRENT ACTIVITIES 3.1 RESEARCH Each Case study team addresses the specific research questions, delivering data for resolving the problem. 3.2 PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE DEVELOPMENT Local people, formal, and traditional, water governance institutions together move towards local people being part of land and water decision-making. 3.3 STRATEGIC ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT (SAM) - stakeholders will be trained in a process for systemic, responsive, contextual, co-management. 4. PARTICIPATORY MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF REFLEXIVE LEARNING Researchers and stakeholders co-develop indicators, co-monitor, co-reflect on progress, co-learn and adapt, using SAM.
Following the ASA in the case studies embeds the theory of change, and the pathways to impact.</p>

本研究于2021年9月27日至10月8日在鲁菲吉流域开展了大规模野外调查与数据采集工作。核心目标包括向鲁菲吉流域水务局（RBWB）介绍研究助理（RA）与RESBEN项目、建立长效合作联系、遴选定性研究样点，以及全面掌握研究涉及的行政区与集水区概况。研究重点采集气候数据、水文报告、取水数据，并调研当地灌溉系统与取水点信息。第一阶段采集的数据涵盖取水记录、17个监测站的降雨数据、14个监测站的径流量数据、包含位置、井深与出水量的机井数据，以及水轮机泄流量、溢洪道泄流量、净蒸发量与水位-库容曲线等水库相关数据。

本研究的核心目标是优化大鲁哈河子流域内不同用水主体间的水资源配置。研究旨在解答一系列关键科学问题：气候变化对水资源可获得性的影响、地表水与地下水潜力的变化规律，以及兼顾多样气候与发展情境的水资源配置优化方案。研究成果已通过系统适应性管理（SAM）研讨会，有效分享给用水户、流域管理者与其他利益相关方。

当前水资源可持续开发仍难以实现，根源在于开发活动大多将成本外部化，转嫁至生态环境与弱势群体。为落实联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）并实现《2025年非洲水愿景》，亟需创新研究理论、方法与实践路径。本研究提出一种创新研究范式：适应性系统方法（ASA）。我们旨在通过变革性、跨学科且以社区为参与主体的研究，推动水资源开发成果向契合SDGs的方向转型。研究聚焦非洲大陆水资源开发的核心优先级：供水保障与水污染防治。

本合作由非洲研究型大学联盟（ARUA）水卓越中心（CoE）与英国合作方谢菲尔德大学（UoS）共同发起。该卓越中心共设8个研究节点：① 埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴大学、卢旺达大学、塞内加尔谢赫·安塔·迪奥普大学、坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆大学、乌干达马凯雷雷大学（经济合作与发展组织发展援助委员会（DAC）分类的最不发达国家）；② 尼日利亚拉各斯大学（经合组织发展援助委员会分类的中低收入国家）；③ 南非开普敦大学、罗德斯大学（卓越中心枢纽，经合组织发展援助委员会分类的中高收入国家）。

我们提出以国家为单元的案例研究框架，以支撑本地研究发展与本地化影响路径（详见《立项论证报告》中的图1）。本研究采用以可持续发展目标6（SDG6，水与卫生）为核心的模型，将景观水资源相关SDGs与供水服务相关SDGs进行关联（该模型支撑了已成功获批的英国研究与创新署（UKRI）全球挑战研究基金（GCRF）能力建设项目：《面向非洲可持续发展目标的水资源》）。本研究提出3个围绕水资源开发核心优先级的研究问题（RQ）：3个基于集水区的案例研究针对研究问题1：**水资源如何被使用，惠及哪些群体？**（分别为坦桑尼亚鲁菲吉河、塞内加尔塞内加尔河与埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河）；2个案例研究聚焦城市水污染问题（乌干达坎帕拉市与尼日利亚拉各斯市），针对研究问题2：**城市水系统中污染的来源、传输路径与影响是什么？**；1个跨领域案例研究则覆盖所有案例集的水资源保护与生物多样性议题，以及卢旺达的一处生物多样性保护地。

本项目收官之际，我们承诺将推动本地民众与影响其用水决策的相关机构建立有效联结。因此所有案例研究均围绕研究问题3展开：**如何提升本地民众参与式治理的能力，以实现：① 公平水资源共享、② 社区污染韧性提升、③ 生态系统保护与修复？**

本研究提出的创新性适应性系统方法（ASA）提供了一套连贯的方法论框架，可支撑案例研究间的对比分析、优化水资源开发实践，并在全项目周期内嵌入影响路径。该方法依托参与式研究，融合三大核心理论概念与配套研究方法：复杂社会-生态系统理论、跨学科研究范式与变革性社会学习理论（详见《立项论证报告》中的详细阐述）。

上述三大理论概念支撑了所有案例研究均需遵循的四大ASA实施步骤：
1. **界定边界**：研究人员与全利益相关方开展沟通，明确具有本地针对性的水资源开发议题，并划定案例研究的研究范围。
2. **适应性规划流程**：利益相关方共同构建契合本地情境的未来愿景，针对选定的议题制定目标层级体系，以推动问题解决。
3. **并行活动**
3.1 **研究工作**：各案例研究团队针对专属研究问题开展工作，采集支撑问题解决的相关数据。
3.2 **参与式治理能力建设**：联合本地民众、官方与传统水治理机构，推动本地民众参与土地与水资源决策进程。
3.3 **战略适应性管理（SAM）**：为利益相关方开展培训，使其掌握系统性、响应性、情境化的协同管理方法。
4. **反思式学习的参与式监测与评估**：研究人员与利益相关方依托SAM框架共同制定监测指标、开展联合监测、共同复盘进展、协同学习并动态调整研究方案。

在案例研究中遵循ASA框架，可将变革理论与影响路径深度嵌入项目全流程。