Polling Place Closures

The hypotheses are (1) that polling place closures have a negative effect on voter turnout; (2) that counties with a larger minority population experience more polling place closures than counties with a smaller minority population, (2a) especially in states with unified Republican state government; and (3) that the negative effect of polling place closures on voter turnout is larger in counties with a larger minority population. Data on three presidential elections (2008, 2012, and 2016) were gathered from the Election Administration and Voting Survey as well as the Bureau of the Census. It finds no support for H1, showing that polling place closures do not have a significant effect on voter turnout. While polling place closures lead to less physical turnout, they are associated with increases in absentee turnout. It finds mixed results for H2, H2a, and H3.

本研究的三项假设如下：（1）投票站关闭对选民投票率具有负向影响；（2）少数族裔人口占比更高的县，其投票站关闭数量多于少数族裔人口占比更低的县，（2a）尤其在共和党一党执政的州；（3）投票站关闭对选民投票率的负向影响在少数族裔人口占比更高的县中更为显著。研究收集了2008、2012、2016年三届总统选举的相关数据，数据来自选举管理与投票调查（Election Administration and Voting Survey）以及美国人口普查局（Bureau of the Census）。研究未发现支持H1的证据，结果表明投票站关闭对选民投票率无显著影响。尽管投票站关闭会拉低现场投票率，但该行为与缺席投票率的上升存在关联。针对H2、H2a及H3，研究得到了混合性的结果。