Estimating death counts completeness and mortality in small areas: an application to Minas Gerais microregions

This article aims to present a simple methodology to estimate the coverage of registration of deaths and obtain estimates of mortality for small areas, using the example of Minas Gerais. The proposed methodology combines the structure of indirect standardization of mortality of smaller areas based on the functions of mortality of larger areas and then applying the methods of distribution of deaths for more robust estimates of mortality for smaller areas. The results are robust and suitable compared to government estimates, and using other methods. The estimates produced using the two stages procedure, were robust and reduced cases of over- registration of deaths counts and improved estimates of adult mortality in some areas where data are less reliable.

本文旨在提出一种简便研究方法，用于估算死亡登记覆盖率并获取小区域的死亡率估计值，研究以米纳斯吉拉斯州（Minas Gerais）为例。所提出的方法结合了基于大区域死亡率函数的小区域死亡率间接标准化框架，并进一步应用死亡分布法，以获得小区域更稳健的死亡率估计值。相较于官方估计值与其他方法的结果，本研究所得结果稳健性更强、适配性更佳。通过两阶段流程生成的估计值具备稳健性，可减少部分数据可靠性较低区域的死亡数多报情况，并改善这些区域的成人死亡率估计精度。