Elections and Capital Flight: Evidence from Africa

The developing world currently loses more money via capital flight than it receives through foreign aid and foreign direct investment combined. This \"leakage\" of capital produces many pernicious consequences for developing economies. What factors influence capital flight? I argue that it follows an electoral cycle. Greater uncertainty prior to elections incentivizes those in the business sector to take their money elsewhere. Using data from thirty-six African countries from 1971 to 2009, I find support for my argument: capital flight is higher during election years than it is otherwise.

当前，发展中经济体因资本外逃（capital flight）流失的资金总额，远超其获得的外援（foreign aid）与外商直接投资（foreign direct investment）两者之和。这种资本“渗漏”现象会对发展中经济体造成诸多恶性后果。究竟哪些因素会影响资本外逃？本文提出，资本外逃存在选举周期特征：选举前的不确定性上升，会促使工商界人士将资金转移至境外。本文采用1971年至2009年间36个非洲国家的相关数据开展实证检验，结果为上述论点提供了支撑：选举年份的资本外逃规模显著高于非选举年份。