IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Cross-Section Box.2 Figure 1 (a): Schematic of the AR6 framework for assessing future greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, risks, impacts and mitigation

The integrated framework encompasses socio-economic development and policy, emissions pathways and global surface temperature responses to the five scenarios considered by WGI (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and eight global mean temperature change categorisations (C1–C8) assessed by WGIII, and the WGII risk assessment. The dashed arrow indicates that the influence from impacts/risks to socio-economic changes is not yet considered in the scenarios assessed in the AR6. Emissions include GHGs, aerosols, and ozone precursors. CO2 emissions are shown as an example on the left. The assessed global surface temperature changes across the 21st century relative to 1850-1900 for the five GHG emissions scenarios are shown as an example in the centre. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Projected temperature outcomes at 2100 relative to 1850-1900 are shown for C1 to C8 categories with median (line) and the combined very likely range across scenarios (bar). On the right, future risks due to increasing warming are represented by an example ‘burning ember’ figure (see 3.1.2 for the definition of RFC1).

本综合框架涵盖社会经济发展与政策、排放路径，以及第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）所考量的五种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSP）情景（SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0及SSP5-8.5）对应的排放路径与全球地表温度响应；同时纳入第三工作组（WGIII）评估的八种全球平均温度变化分类（C1–C8），以及第二工作组（WGII）的风险评估内容。图中虚线箭头表明，AR6本次评估的情景尚未纳入影响/风险对社会经济变化的反馈作用。排放组分涵盖温室气体（Greenhouse Gases，GHGs）、气溶胶与臭氧前体物；左侧以二氧化碳（CO₂）排放作为示例进行展示。中间示例展示了五种温室气体排放情景下，21世纪相较于1850-1900年基准期的全球地表温度变化评估结果，其中SSP1-2.6与SSP3-7.0情景给出了极可能范围。针对C1至C8分类，图中展示了相较于1850-1900年基准期的2100年预估温度结果：折线代表中位数，柱状图代表多情景合并的极可能范围。右侧以“燃烧余烬”示例图展示了增暖加剧引发的未来风险，RFC1的定义详见3.1.2节。