Trends in Earnings Volatility Using Linked Administrative and Survey Data

We document trends in earnings volatility separately by gender using unique linked survey data from the CPS ASEC and Social Security earnings records for the tax years spanning 1995–2015. The exact data link permits us to focus on differences in measured volatility from earnings nonresponse, survey attrition, and measurement between survey and administrative earnings data reports, while holding constant the sampling frame. Our results for both men and women suggest that the level and trend in volatility is similar in the survey and administrative data, showing substantial business-cycle sensitivity among men but no overall trend among continuous workers, while women demonstrate no change in earnings volatility over the business cycle but a declining trend. A substantive difference emerges with the inclusion of imputed earnings among survey nonrespondents, suggesting that users of the ASEC drop earnings nonrespondents.

本文基于1995至2015纳税年度的独特关联调查数据——由当前人口调查年度社会与经济补充调查（CPS ASEC）与社会保障收入行政记录匹配得到——分别按性别刻画了收入波动性的变化趋势。借助精准的数据关联机制，我们可在固定抽样框架的前提下，专门研究由收入无应答、调查失访，以及调查数据与行政收入申报数据间的测量差异所引发的收入波动性测算偏差。针对男性与女性的分析结果均表明，调查数据与行政数据中的收入波动性水平及变化趋势基本一致：男性群体的收入波动性呈现显著的商业周期敏感性，但连续就业者群体的收入波动性并无整体趋势；而女性群体的收入波动性未随商业周期发生变化，但整体呈下降趋势。当将调查无应答者的插补收入纳入样本后，两类数据间出现了实质性差异，这提示CPS ASEC的使用者应剔除收入无应答的观测样本。