Impacting Factors in the Gross Value of Production of Black Pepper (Piper nigrum L.) in Pará

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper was to quantify and analyze the changes occurred, between the years 1998 to 2012, in the gross value of production of the black pepper in the State of Pará, as well as the changes in the factors of its variation: harvested area, crop yield and price. For the analysis, it was used the geometric rate of growth, the coefficient of variation and the “shift-share” model applied to the culture's data. Overall, the gross value of production increased in the studied period, passing through an initial period of decline, with recovery of growth in 2006. The harvested area and the selling price increased between the period of 1998 to 2012, while the crop yield decreased. The price showed greater oscillation among the studied factors and had the highest impact in the gross value of production. The productivity proved to be more stable. Increases in harvested area and especially in productivity were considered of interest so the culture of black pepper can grow in market value.

摘要 本研究旨在量化分析1998年至2012年间巴西帕拉州（Pará）黑胡椒生产总值的变化，及其波动影响因素：收获面积、作物单产（crop yield）与销售价格。分析过程中，本研究采用几何增长率、变异系数以及适用于该作物数据的转移份额（shift-share）模型。整体而言，研究期内黑胡椒生产总值呈增长态势，历经初期下滑阶段，并于2006年实现增长复苏。1998至2012年间，黑胡椒的收获面积与销售价格均有所提升，而作物单产则出现下降。在上述研究因素中，销售价格的波动幅度最大，且对生产总值的影响程度最高。作物单产表现得更为稳定。扩大收获面积，尤其是提升作物单产，被认为有助于推动黑胡椒种植的市场价值增长。