The sector elasticities of Brazilian exports: an empirical analysis for the period 1999-2013

Abstract The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Brazilian exports of primary commodities and manufactures for the Asian, NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUR countries between 1999 and 2013. From an extension of the Imperfect Substitutes Model, elaborated by Goldstein and Khan (1978), the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to determine the short- and long-term elasticities. The results show that in the trade with these blocks of countries, commodities are more sensitive to external income than to other variables considered in this study. As for manufactures, the results also point to a greater influence of the variable income, except for the block of Asian countries, where the variable relative price seems to be the most important determinant and that exports of manufactured goods are more sensitive to changes in the exchange rate than exports of primary commodities.

摘要 本研究旨在分析1999年至2013年间，巴西对亚洲、北美自由贸易区（NAFTA）、欧洲联盟（European Union）以及南方共同市场（MERCOSUR）成员国的初级商品与制成品出口表现。基于Goldstein与Khan（1978年）拓展提出的不完全替代模型（Imperfect Substitutes Model），本研究采用误差修正模型（Error Correction Model, ECM）测算短期与长期弹性。研究结果显示，在与上述国家集团的贸易中，初级商品出口对外部收入的敏感度高于本研究考量的其他变量。就制成品出口而言，收入变量的影响同样更为显著，但亚洲国家集团除外——该集团贸易中相对价格变量似乎是最关键的决定因素；且制成品出口相较于初级商品出口，对汇率变动的敏感度更高。