Replication Data for: Are Police Racially Biased in the Decision to Shoot?

We present a theoretical model predicting that racially biased policing produces 1) more use of potentially lethal force by firearms against Black civilians than against White civilians and 2) lower fatality rates for Black civilians than White civilians. We empirically evaluate this second prediction with original officer-involved shooting data from 2010 to 2017 for eight local police jurisdictions, finding that Black fatality rates are significantly lower than White fatality rates and that this significance would survive an omitted covariate three times as strong as any of our observed covariates. Furthermore, using outcome test methodology and a comparability assumption, we estimate that at least 30% of Black civilians shot by the police would not have been shot had they been White. An omitted covariate would need to be at least three times as strong as any of our observed covariates to eliminate this finding. Finally, any omitted covariate would have to affect Black fatality rates substantially more than Hispanic fatality rates in order to be consistent with the data.

本研究提出一项理论模型，该模型预测，存在种族偏见的警务执法会产生两类结果：其一，针对黑人民众的枪械潜在致命武力使用频次高于白人民众；其二，黑人民众的枪击致死率低于白人民众。本研究利用2010至2017年间8个地方警察辖区的一手警员枪击事件数据，对第二项预测开展实证检验，结果发现黑人民众的枪击致死率显著低于白人民众，且该显著性结果在遗漏协变量强度达到现有观测协变量三倍的情况下依然成立。此外，借助结果检验方法论与可比性假设，本研究估算得出：在被警方枪击的黑人民众中，至少有30%的个体若为白人则不会遭到枪击。若要推翻该结论，所需的遗漏协变量强度至少需达到现有观测协变量的三倍。最后，若要使遗漏协变量的影响与观测数据一致，该协变量对黑人民众枪击致死率的影响必须显著强于对西班牙裔民众枪击致死率的影响。