Data from: Patchy distribution and low effective population size raise concern for an at-risk top predator

Aim: Understanding carnivore distribution is important for management decisions that aim to restore naturally-regulated ecosystems and preserve biodiversity. Eastern Wolves, a species at risk in Canada, are centralized in Algonquin Provincial Park and their ability to disperse and establish themselves elsewhere is limited by human-caused mortality associated with hunting, trapping, and vehicle collisions. Here, we refine our understanding of Eastern Wolf distribution and provide the first estimates of their effective population size. Location: Southern Ontario and Gatineau Quebec. Methods: We used noninvasive samples, as well as blood samples archived from other research projects, collected between 2010 – 2014 to generate autosomal microsatellite genotypes at 12 loci for 98 Canis individuals. We utilized Bayesian and multivariate clustering analyses to identify Eastern Wolves in regions that were previously unsampled. Both linkage disequilibrium and temporal approaches were used to estimate effective population size of Eastern Wolves. Results: Assignment tests identified 34 individuals as Eastern Wolves, primarily in or near two provincial parks: Killarney and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands. Eastern Coyotes were identified in Bon Echo Provincial Park, Frontenac Provincial Park, and Gatineau Park, whereas many of the samples were admixed among the different Canis types. Effective population size (Ne) estimates ranged from 24.3 – 122.1 with a harmonic mean of 45.6. Main Conclusions: The identification of Eastern Wolves in the regions of Killarney and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands Provincial Parks extends the range of Eastern Wolves north of the French River and southward into previously unidentified regions. The effective population size is low and raises concerns for long-term persistence of this threatened carnivore; values are dangerously close to critical values recommended for short-term persistence. These results provide important information for upcoming Eastern Wolf recovery plans associated with federal and provincial endangered species legislation.

研究目的：明晰食肉动物的分布格局，对于制定旨在恢复自然调控生态系统、保护生物多样性的管理决策具有重要意义。作为加拿大的濒危物种，东部狼（Eastern Wolf）目前仅集中分布于阿尔贡金省立公园，其向外扩散并在其他区域定居的能力，受到狩猎、诱捕及车辆碰撞等人为致死因素的限制。本研究旨在深化对东部狼分布范围的认知，并首次提供其有效种群大小（effective population size, Ne）的估算结果。
研究区域：安大略省南部及魁北克省加蒂诺地区。
研究方法：本研究采集了2010至2014年间获取的非侵入性样本，以及其他研究项目存档的血液样本，对98个犬属（Canis）个体的12个基因座的常染色体微卫星基因型（autosomal microsatellite genotypes）进行了分型。我们采用贝叶斯聚类与多变量聚类分析方法，在此前未开展采样的区域中识别东部狼个体；同时利用连锁不平衡法与时间序列法，估算东部狼的有效种群大小。
研究结果：个体归属分析共鉴定出34头东部狼个体，主要分布于基拉尼省立公园与伊丽莎白二世荒野省立公园及其周边区域。在邦埃科省立公园、弗朗特纳克省立公园及加蒂诺公园中则鉴定出东部郊狼个体，同时多数样本呈现出不同犬属类群的遗传混合特征。有效种群大小估算值介于24.3至122.1之间，调和均值为45.6。
主要结论：在基拉尼省立公园与伊丽莎白二世荒野省立公园区域内鉴定出东部狼个体，将该物种的分布范围拓展至法国河以北，并向南延伸至此前未被记录的区域。本次估算的有效种群规模偏低，引发了对这一受威胁食肉动物长期存续的担忧；其数值已接近维持短期存续所需的临界阈值，处于危险水平。本研究结果可为即将出台的、基于联邦及省级濒危物种立法的东部狼恢复计划提供关键科学依据。