Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

We use high-frequency retail microdata to measure the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices. By matching daily prices from major U.S. retailers to product-level tariff rates and countries of origin, we construct price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes

本研究采用高频零售微观数据，衡量2025年美国关税政策对消费者价格的短期影响。通过将美国大型零售商的每日价格数据与产品层面关税税率及原产国进行匹配，我们构建了能够剥离关税变动直接影响的价格指数。