Dataset and R-script for the analysis of temporal yield stability

One of the primary challenges of our time is to enhance global food production and security. Most assessments in agricultural systems focus on plant yield. Yet, these analyses neglect temporal yield stability, or the variability and reliability of production across years. Here we perform a meta-analysis to assess temporal yield stability of three major cropping systems: organic agriculture and conservation agriculture (no-tillage) vs. conventional agriculture, comparing 193 studies based on 2896 comparisons. Organic agriculture has, per unit yield, a<br>significantly lower temporal stability (−15%) compared to conventional agriculture. Thus, although organic farming promotes biodiversity and is generally more environmentally<br>friendly, future efforts should focus on reducing its yield variability. Our analysis further indicates that the use of green manure and enhanced fertilisation can reduce the yield stability gap between organic and conventional agriculture. The temporal stability (−3%) of no-tillage does not differ significantly from those of conventional tillage indicating that a transition to no-tillage does not affect yield stability.<br>

提升全球粮食生产能力与粮食安全水平，是当今时代的核心挑战之一。农业领域的多数评估研究均聚焦于作物产量，却忽略了时间维度下的产量稳定性——即多年间生产的波动程度与可靠性。本研究通过荟萃分析（meta-analysis），对三大种植体系的时间维度产量稳定性展开评估：有机农业、保护性耕作（免耕）农业与传统常规农业，并依托2896组对比数据，整合分析了193项相关研究成果。相较于常规农业，有机农业在单位产量对应的时间稳定性显著更低，降幅达15%。因此，尽管有机农业可促进生物多样性提升，且整体更具环境友好性，未来相关工作仍需聚焦于降低其产量波动水平。本研究进一步显示，施用绿肥与优化施肥策略，能够缩小有机农业与常规农业之间的产量稳定性差距。免耕模式的时间稳定性（降幅为3%）与传统翻耕模式无显著统计学差异，这表明向免耕模式转型并不会对产量稳定性造成影响。