2021年度一带一路洪涝风险评估产品

利用气象历史数据和长期预报数据（2006-2030年），12计算5-10月，按月逐日计算极值分布函数，分别确定各月20年、50年、100年一遇的洪水概率。利用逐月每日降水值，对比各日的风险概率，有超过20年、50年、100年一遇的值即进行风险判定。

Using historical meteorological data and long-term forecast data spanning 2006–2030, we calculate the extreme value distribution function on a daily-per-month basis from May to October, and respectively determine the flood probabilities with 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods for each individual month. Subsequently, by utilizing the daily precipitation values of each month, we compare the risk probability of each day, and conduct risk assessment when the daily value exceeds the threshold corresponding to the 20-year, 50-year, or 100-year return period.