Replication data for: Sovereign Bond Ratings and Neoliberalism in Latin America

The importance of credit rating agencies (CRAs) in rating sovereign bonds has grown as developing countries increasingly issue bonds to attract foreign capital. Although in their methodologies CRAs claim that the initiation of neoliberal reforms influences bond ratings, given the secrecy surrounding ratings, it is unclear what impact reforms actually have on CRAs. Controlling for macroeconomic and political determinants, we use statistical analyses, as well as recent qualitative evidence, for some 16 Latin American countries from 1992 to 2003 to assess the effects of economic reforms on CRA decisions. We find that among neoliberal policies only trade liberalization positively and consistently impacts bond ratings. The relative ease of implementation along with the credible commitment to maintain trade policies help explain higher bond ratings. The results also show that inflation and bond defaults negatively affect CRA assessments. The findings provide reasons for optimism. Many economic policies, often politically difficult to implement, do not lead to higher ratings. Others that are relatively easy to implement do. Policy makers in Latin American countries have more options to lessen political tensions, lower the cost of capital, and increase its availability for investment and growth than previously predicted

随着发展中国家愈发频繁地发行债券以吸引外资，信用评级机构（Credit Rating Agencies，简称CRAs）在主权债券（sovereign bonds）评级领域的重要性与日俱增。尽管信用评级机构在其评级方法中声称，新自由主义改革（neoliberal reforms）的启动会对债券评级产生影响，但由于评级流程的保密性，学界尚不清楚改革实际上会对评级机构产生何种作用。本研究以1992年至2003年间的约16个拉美国家为样本，在控制宏观经济与政治决定因素的前提下，结合统计分析与最新定性证据，评估经济改革对信用评级机构决策的影响。研究发现，在新自由主义政策框架中，仅贸易自由化对债券评级产生正向且持续的影响。贸易自由化相对易于推行，且政策制定者可做出维持该贸易政策的可信承诺，这两点有助于解释为何实施贸易自由化可提升债券评级。研究结果同时显示，通货膨胀与债券违约会对信用评级机构的评级评估产生负面影响。本研究结论为政策制定者带来了乐观预期的依据：诸多在政治层面推行难度颇高的经济政策，并不会带来更高的债券评级，而另一些相对易于推行的政策则可以实现这一目标。相较于此前的预期，拉美国家的政策制定者拥有更多可行方案，以缓解政治紧张局势、降低资金成本，并提升资金可获得性，从而服务于投资与经济增长。