Disentangling effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services – a multi-scale experimental design

1. Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients.

2. Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximize the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales.

3. Stratif...

1. 人类世（Anthropocene）背景下，气候变化与土地利用变化是环境退化的核心驱动因子，但学界对二者对生物多样性（biodiversity）与生态系统服务（ecosystem services）的交互影响仍知之甚少。当前仍缺乏生物多样性变化趋势的长期观测数据。此外，既往生态学研究极少采用联合设计同时考量气候与土地利用因素，要么未能实现变量独立性，要么因未覆盖完整环境梯度范围而损失统计效力。
2. 本研究提出一种多尺度以空间替代时间（space-for-time）的研究设计，以厘清气候变化与土地利用对生物多样性及生态系统服务的影响。该样地遴选方法结合了大规模地理信息系统（GIS）探索与相关热图分析，并采用覆盖区域、景观与局地尺度的交叉嵌套设计。本研究在德国巴伐利亚州实施该方案，最终获得一组研究样地，可在不同空间尺度下最大化环境变量的潜在取值范围与独立性。
3. 原文存在编码异常，内容为截断的“Stratif”相关表述。