Análise do Impacto das Políticas de (Des)Oneração da Folha de Pagamento na Economia Brasileira

Abstract In 2012 the Brazilian Federal Government adopted a payroll tax exemption, but in 2015 such policy was reviewed and changed by removing part of the exemption. The goal is to evaluate the economic impacts of these policies using a computable dynamic and multisectoral general equilibrium model developed for the Brazilian economy. The results show that the exemption policy would imply a cumulative growth impact of 0,34% in GDP, while the new policy leads to a cumulative growth impact −0,37%. This result is explained by the sectoral distortions resulting from the changes in the exemption policy which increases the cost of payroll in capital-intensive sectors as well as in their production cost of these goods, leading to reductions in the aggregated investment rate.

摘要 2012年巴西联邦政府出台了薪资税减免政策，但2015年该政策经过审议并作出调整，取消了部分减免条款。本研究采用针对巴西经济开发的可计算动态多部门一般均衡模型（computable dynamic and multisectoral general equilibrium model），对上述两项政策的经济影响进行评估。研究结果表明，原薪资税减免政策将使国内生产总值（GDP）累计实现0.34%的增长，而调整后的新政策则会导致GDP累计下滑0.37%。该结果可由政策调整引发的行业扭曲效应得到解释：政策变动抬高了资本密集型行业的薪资成本及相关产品的生产成本，进而拉低了整体投资率。