Supplementary files_Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 and Government Fiscal Policies on the Korean Economy Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model

This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Korean government's fiscal measures on macroeconomic and microeconomic shifts. Utilizing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model and database version 11, with 2017 as the base year, we aggregated 160 regions and 65 sectors into 9 regions and 18 sectors. The model projected the global economy to 2020 using variables such as real GDP, population, capital stock, and labor supply for a baseline scenario. Two policy scenarios assessed the impacts of the pandemic and a fiscal stimulus package. Results indicated a global decline in real GDP and welfare, with disruptions in supply chains and increased trade costs negatively affecting import and export volumes. Sectors such as tourism were particularly impacted. Specifically, the Korean economy faced a significant negative impact from the pandemic. Despite government fiscal measures that positively influenced real GDP, Korea's real GDP contracted by 1.7% in 2020, deviating from the pre-pandemic growth changes of approximately 2% per year. Welfare losses amounted to US$103 billion, driven by decreased consumer spending and increased unemployment. Export and import volumes fell, leading to a narrower trade deficit of US$17 billion compared to the previous year. The study underscores the need for targeted fiscal measures to mitigate adverse effects, recommending policies to stimulate private household consumption, support affected sectors, and enhance Korea's international trade competitiveness.

本研究探讨了新冠疫情（COVID-19）与韩国政府财政政策对宏观经济与微观经济格局变迁的影响。本研究采用全球贸易分析项目（Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP）可计算一般均衡模型及其第11版数据库，以2017年为基期，将原有的160个地区与65个产业部门聚合为9个地区及18个产业部门。研究基于实际GDP、人口、资本存量与劳动力供给等变量构建基准情景，将全球经济情景推演至2020年。设置两类政策情景，分别评估疫情与财政刺激计划的经济影响。研究结果显示，全球实际GDP与社会福利均出现下滑，供应链中断与贸易成本上升对进出口规模产生了显著负向冲击，旅游业等部门受影响尤为严重。具体而言，韩国经济受到疫情的显著负面冲击。尽管韩国政府出台的财政政策对实际GDP产生了正向支撑，但2020年韩国实际GDP仍下滑1.7%，与疫情前年均约2%的增速出现明显偏离。受居民消费下降与失业率上升影响，韩国社会福利损失达1030亿美元。进出口规模双双下滑，使得韩国贸易逆差较上年收窄至170亿美元。本研究强调需出台针对性财政政策以缓解不利影响，并建议通过多项政策提振居民私人消费、帮扶受冲击产业，同时提升韩国国际贸易竞争力。