Data from: Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming

Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms, including dispersal patterns and population connectivity. Understanding these changes is essential to predict future species distributions, estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of protected areas. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster, but suffer higher mortality, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle. Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in local retention may hasten recovery.

气候变化将改变生物生态学的多个方面，包括扩散模式与种群连通性（population connectivity）。明晰此类变化，对于预测物种未来分布范围、评估物种适应潜力以及构建高效的保护地网络至关重要。在海洋环境中，物种扩散通常依靠幼虫（larvae）阶段完成。当水温升高时，幼虫发育速率加快，但死亡率上升，这使得温度对扩散的影响难以预判。本研究通过实验校准了珊瑚扩散动态模型中温度对幼虫存活与定居（settlement）的影响。研究结果表明，受海洋变暖影响，全球多数珊瑚礁的幼虫本地留存率将提升数倍。对于平均水体滞留时间（water residence times）与物种达到定居适宜期所需时长相当的珊瑚礁而言，该提升效应将尤为显著。更高的本地留存率会强化珊瑚礁尺度下种群丰度与种群补充量（recruitment）之间的关联，这意味着种群对本地保护措施的响应将更为灵敏。更高的本地留存率与死亡率会削弱种群间的连通性，进而可能延缓因严重扰动导致本地种群大幅减少后的种群恢复进程。与之相反，依赖本地亲体种群（broodstock）补充的孤立珊瑚礁，其本地留存率的提升或可加速种群恢复。