Summary of system-wide economics of CCUS network ($2009 million)

<b>Table 4.</b> Summary of system-wide economics of CCUS network ($2009 million). A 10% discount rates is used for NPV analysis. Three values for a given scenario represent the three different electricity prices assumed for sensitivity analysis (from top to bottom, 0.05$ kWh⁻¹; industrial; residential). <strong>Abstract</strong> This letter compares several bounding cases for understanding the economic viability of capturing large quantities of anthropogenic CO₂ from coal-fired power generators within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas electric grid and using it for pure CO₂ enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the onshore coastal region of Texas along the Gulf of Mexico. All captured CO₂ in excess of that needed for EOR is sequestered in saline formations at the same geographic locations as the oil reservoirs but at a different depth. We analyze the extraction of oil from the same set of ten reservoirs within 20- and five-year time frames to describe how the scale of the carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) network changes to meet the rate of CO₂ demand for oil recovery. Our analysis shows that there is a negative system-wide net present value (NPV) for all modeled scenarios. The system comes close to breakeven economics when capturing CO₂ from three coal-fired power plants to produce oil via CO₂-EOR over 20 years and assuming no CO₂ emissions penalty. The NPV drops when we consider a larger network to produce oil more quickly (21 coal-fired generators with CO₂ capture to produce 80% of the oil within five years). Upon applying a CO₂ emissions penalty of 60$2009/tCO₂ to fossil fuel emissions to ensure that coal-fired power plants with CO₂ capture remain in baseload operation, the system economics drop significantly. We show near profitability for the cash flow of the EOR operations only; however, this situation requires relatively cheap electricity prices during operation.

表4. 碳捕获、利用与封存（CCUS）全系统经济性汇总（单位：2009年百万美元）。本研究采用10%的折现率开展净现值（NPV）分析。某一情景下的三个数值分别对应敏感性分析所设定的三种电价（从上至下依次为：0.05美元/千瓦时、工业电价、居民电价）。**摘要** 本通讯对比了多种边界情景，旨在明确在德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会电网内，从燃煤发电机组中捕集大量人为二氧化碳，并将其用于墨西哥湾沿岸德克萨斯州陆上沿海地区的纯二氧化碳强化采油（EOR）的经济可行性。所有超出强化采油需求的捕集二氧化碳，将被封存至与油藏同区域但不同深度的盐层构造中。我们针对10个同一油藏群，分别以20年和5年为时间跨度开展石油开采分析，以此阐明碳捕获、利用与封存（CCUS）网络的规模调整逻辑，以匹配采油所需的二氧化碳供给速率。分析结果表明，所有模拟情景下的全系统净现值（NPV）均为负值。若在20年周期内，从3座燃煤电厂捕集二氧化碳并通过二氧化碳强化采油（CO₂-EOR）生产石油，且不考虑二氧化碳排放处罚，则该系统的经济性接近收支平衡点。若采用更大规模的碳捕获网络以加快石油产出速度（即5年内通过21座加装碳捕集装置的燃煤发电机组开采80%的石油），则系统净现值会出现下滑。若对化石燃料排放征收以2009年计价标准计的60美元/吨二氧化碳排放处罚，以确保加装碳捕集装置的燃煤发电机组维持基荷运行，则系统经济性将出现显著下滑。仅针对强化采油（EOR）业务的现金流而言，分析结果显示其接近盈利状态，但该情景需要在运营阶段采用相对低廉的电价。