Model for Garcia et al. "Harnessing the resource budget model to integrate alternate bearing and agroecosystem resilience."

Excel file with the parameterized resource budget model used for a modeling exercise integrating crop alternate bearing and environmental shocks. Modeled scenarios are figures can be found on individual sheets. Details in manuscript text (in prep)<br><b>Study abstract:</b><br>"Climate stress to food systems has spurred international efforts to support agroecosystem resilience to secure farmer livelihoods and agricultural production in the face of environmental disturbances. Given the complex feedbacks between farm, farmer, and the broader landscape, agroecosystem resilience relies on an integrated understanding of crop plant responses and farmer decision-making in response to shocks. This integration is especially important, yet underdeveloped, in perennial crop systems that exhibit synchronous alternate bearing, a pattern of reproduction fluctuating between high and low years. As a first step toward filling this gap, we apply the logic of the resource budget model, an ecological theory developed to describe the mechanisms of synchronous masting in forest trees, to alternate-bearing crop systems to demonstrate how consideration of alternate bearing influences agroecosystem resilience inference. Through an exploration of a parameterized resource budget model, we illustrate (a) how an environmental shock could induce synchrony across a previously asynchronous farm, thereby resulting in farm income fluctuations, and (b) how the impact of a shock depends on its timing relative to resource gain and depletion. While persistent stressors and shocks are treated separately in the resilience literature, the model exploration suggests that stressors can become shocks and vice-versa. We discuss the implications of alternative scenarios for farmer livelihoods and propose a method for incorporating a consideration of alternate bearing into existing agroecosystem resilience frameworks. We conclude by highlighting remaining gaps to advance the theoretical and empirical integration of alternate bearing and agroecosystem resilience."

本数据集为包含参数化资源预算模型（parameterized resource budget model）的Excel文件，该模型用于开展整合作物隔年结果（alternate bearing）与环境冲击的建模研究。已构建的情景对应的图表可在各工作表中查阅，详细信息见待发表的手稿文本。<br><b>研究摘要：</b><br>气候胁迫对粮食系统造成的冲击，推动了国际社会开展相关工作，以支持农业生态系统恢复力（agroecosystem resilience）建设，从而在环境扰动面前保障农户生计与农业生产。鉴于农场、农户与更大尺度景观之间存在复杂的反馈机制，农业生态系统恢复力有赖于对作物响应以及农户应对冲击的决策行为的整合性理解。这种整合在表现出同步性隔年结果模式——即产量在高产年与低产年之间周期性波动——的多年生作物系统中尤为重要，但目前相关研究仍较为匮乏。<br>为填补这一研究空白，我们首次将资源预算模型的逻辑——一种用于描述林木同步结实（masting）机制的生态学理论——应用于隔年结果作物系统，以阐明考虑隔年结果特性如何影响农业生态系统恢复力的推断。通过对参数化资源预算模型的探索，我们展示了：(a) 环境冲击如何能够在原本异步的农场中诱导出生产同步性，进而引发农场收入波动；(b) 冲击的影响如何取决于其相对于资源积累与消耗的时间节点。<br>尽管恢复力研究领域通常将持续胁迫与冲击分开处理，但本模型探索结果表明，胁迫可以转化为冲击，反之亦然。我们讨论了不同情景对农户生计的影响，并提出了一种将隔年结果特性纳入现有农业生态系统恢复力框架的方法。最后，我们指出了仍存在的研究空白，以推动隔年结果与农业生态系统恢复力的理论与实证整合。