Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia

The impact of global warming on insect-borne diseases and on highland malaria in particular remains controversial. Temperature is known to influence transmission intensity through its effects on the population growth of the mosquito vector and on pathogen development within the vector. Spatiotemporal data at a regional scale in highlands of Colombia and Ethiopia supplied an opportunity to examine how the spatial distribution of the disease changes with the interannual variability of temperature. We provide evidence for an increase in the altitude of malaria distribution in warmer years, which implies that climate change will, without mitigation, result in an increase of the malaria burden in the densely populated highlands of Africa and South America.

全球变暖对虫媒传染病的影响，尤其是高原型疟疾的影响，至今仍存在争议。已知温度可通过影响蚊类媒介的种群增长以及病原体在媒介体内的发育过程，调控传染病的传播强度。借助哥伦比亚与埃塞俄比亚高原区域尺度的时空数据集，我们得以探究该疾病的空间分布如何随温度的年际变化发生改变。本研究证实，在气候偏暖的年份，疟疾分布的海拔上限有所抬升；这意味着若不采取气候减缓措施，气候变化将导致非洲与南美洲人口稠密的高原地区的疟疾疾病负担进一步加重。