2018 Aerial survey data of southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) off southern Australia

These aerial survey data of southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) off southern Australia were collected in August 2018. Such annual flights in winter/spring between Cape Leeuwin (Western Australia) and Ceduna (South Australia) have now been conducted over a 26-year period 1993-2018. These surveys have provided evidence of a population trend of around 6% per year, and a current (at 2014) population size of approximately 2300 of what has been regarded as the 'western' Australian right whale subpopulation. With estimated population size in the low thousands, it is presumed to be still well below carrying capacity. No trend information is available for the 'eastern' subpopulation of animals occurring around the remainder of the southern Australian Coast, to at least as far as Sydney, New South Wales and the populations size is relatively small, probably in the low hundreds. A lower than expected 'western' count in 2015 gives weak evidence that the growth rate may be starting to show signs of slowing, though an exponential increase remains the best description of the data. If the low 2015 count is anomalous, future counts may be expected to show an exponential increase, but if it is not, modelling growth as other than simple exponential may be useful to explore in future.

2018年8月采集了澳大利亚南部海域南露脊鲸（Eubalaena australis）的航空调查数据。此项于每年冬、春季开展的、往返于澳大利亚西部卢因角与南澳大利亚州塞杜纳之间的年度航空勘测，迄今已在1993至2018年间持续了26年。本次调查结果显示，被认定为澳大利亚"西部"露脊鲸亚群的种群年增长率约为6%，2014年时其种群规模约为2300头。该亚群的估算种群规模处于数千头的低位，推测其仍远低于环境容纳量。分布于澳大利亚南部其余海岸（至少延伸至新南威尔士州悉尼一带）的"东部"露脊鲸亚群，目前尚无其种群趋势相关数据；该亚群规模相对较小，约为数百头。2015年"西部"亚群的观测数量低于预期，仅能提供微弱证据表明其增长率可能已出现放缓迹象，不过现有数据仍以指数增长为最佳拟合结果。若2015年的低观测值属于异常值，则后续观测结果大概率仍将呈现指数增长趋势；反之，若该值并非异常，则未来研究中尝试采用非简单指数模型对种群增长进行拟合或将具有探索价值。