China and Brazilian deindustrialization: a look beyond regressive specialization

Abstract The article analyzes how the strengthening of trade relations between Brazil and China, since the 2000s, has caused the deepening of two characteristic phenomena of the Brazilian economy since the 1980s: regressive specialization and deindustrialization. In particular, in addition to the impacts, which have been widely analyzed, regarding the Chinese role in productive specialization in the recent period, it is argued that these effects are extended to the densification of the productive structure. Based on the adaptation of industrial densification indicators - the manufacturing densification coefficient (CDIT) and the relative participation coefficient in the densification (CPRD) - using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) as a database, the article points out how the Chinese advance occurred transversally (increased participation in all sectors analyzed) and heterogeneous (an important sectorial bias in this Chinese advance is observed) in the Brazilian manufacturing

摘要 本文分析了2000年以来中巴双边贸易关系的强化如何推动巴西经济自1980年代以来出现的两大典型现象进一步深化：累退式专业化与去工业化。除学界已广泛分析的中国在近期生产专业化格局中的影响之外，本文进一步提出，此类效应还延伸至生产结构的致密化进程。本文以世界投入产出数据库（World Input-Output Database, WIOD）为数据源，对产业致密化相关指标——制造业致密化系数（manufacturing densification coefficient, CDIT）与致密化相对参与系数（relative participation coefficient in the densification, CPRD）——进行适配调整后，指出中国对巴西制造业的渗透呈现横向（在所分析的全部行业中参与度均获提升）与异质性（该渗透过程存在显著行业偏向性）兼具的特征。