GroMoPo Metadata for Variconi Coastal Wetland model

Coastal freshwater resources are commonly under high risk of being contaminated from seawater. The main processes that affect seawater intrusion are groundwater overexploitation, land use change, and climate change effects. In this context coastal lagoons represent the more sensitive environments prone to seawater intrusion. Numerical modelling is a useful tool to understand and predict seawater intrusion. In this study, a three-dimensional SEAWAT model is employed to simulate the seawater intrusion to coastal aquifers of Variconi Oasis (Italy). The present simulation was divided into a calibration and a validation model, then the model was used to predict the salinization trend up to 2050. Results show the role of the sea in salinizing the beach front, while the retrodunal environment is characterized by transitional environments. Future seawater intrusion scenarios considering only climate data showed no significative differences in respect to the actual situation. The same happens considering also a low sea level rise prediction. On the contrary, the worst scenario (high sea level rise prediction), depicts a quite different situation, with a saline intrusion in the Variconi oasis that will severely affect the fragile transitional ecosystem. This modelling framework can be used to quantify the effects of climate changes in similar coastal environments.

沿海淡水资源普遍面临较高的海水污染风险。影响海水入侵的主要过程包括地下水超采、土地利用变化与气候变化影响。在此背景下，沿海泻湖是最易发生海水入侵的敏感生态环境。数值模拟是理解并预测海水入侵的有效工具。本研究采用三维SEAWAT模型，对意大利瓦里科尼绿洲沿海含水层的海水入侵过程进行模拟。本次模拟分为率定与验证两个阶段，随后利用该模型预测至2050年的盐化趋势。模拟结果显示，海洋对滨岸带的盐化过程起到主导作用，而沙丘后环境则以过渡生态系统为主要特征。仅考虑气候数据的未来海水入侵情景，与当前实际情况无显著差异。同时考虑低海平面上升预估的情景，结果亦与此一致。反之，最差情景（高海平面上升预估）则呈现出截然不同的状况：瓦里科尼绿洲将发生盐水入侵，严重威胁其脆弱的过渡生态系统。该模拟框架可用于量化气候变化对类似沿海生态环境的影响。