Diffusion of Innovation in Technological Platforms: The Uber Case

ABSTRACT Objective: diffusion theory suggests that customers adopt innovation. However, no research has examined the differences between peers and the balance required of a peer-to-peer platform in the diffusion process. This article investigates whether there was a peer-to-peer balance in the diffusion process of a technological platform, represented here by the Uber case. Methods: a total of 843 Uber users, comprising 397 drivers and 446 customers, took part in a probabilistic sample survey in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The study tests the hypothesis of P2P platform diffusion balance along Rogers’ curve with Levene’s and t-test. Results: the findings are counterintuitive and unexpected. Although the authors expected passengers and drivers to show a similar predisposition for Uber’s adoption, empirical data did not confirm this. In contrast to the literature, which predicts that adoption occurs mainly in the initial phases, drivers’ predisposition showed a constant diffusion curve. Conclusions: considering the peer-to-peer platform context, this article shows that the balance between peers can still be present considering the multiple actors involved, which shows a proposition for this research. Besides, this article develops the ‘technological readiness indicator,’ thus enabling a better understanding of different empirical contexts.

摘要 研究目标：创新扩散理论认为消费者会采纳创新成果，但目前尚无研究探讨点对点（peer-to-peer, P2P）平台在创新扩散过程中各对等主体间的差异及所需的平衡状态。本文以优步（Uber）为案例，探究技术平台的扩散过程中是否存在对等主体间的平衡。
研究方法：本研究于巴西贝洛奥里藏特开展概率抽样调查，共招募843名优步用户，其中包含397名司机与446名乘客。本研究基于罗杰斯（Rogers）的创新扩散曲线，利用莱文检验（Levene’s test）与t检验验证点对点平台扩散平衡假说。
研究结果：本研究结果既违背直觉，亦超出预期。尽管研究者最初预计乘客与司机对优步的采纳倾向相近，但实证数据并未证实这一假设。与现有文献所预测的“采纳行为主要集中于初始阶段”的结论相悖，司机群体的采纳倾向呈现出平稳的扩散曲线。
研究结论：结合点对点平台的研究场景，本文表明，考虑到涉及的多元参与主体，对等主体间的平衡依然可能存在，据此提出本研究的相关命题。此外，本文构建了“技术就绪度指标”，有助于更好地理解不同的实证场景。