The role of BNDES and financing development in Brazil: an analysis of treasury loan prepayments and the creation of TLP

Abstract The article discusses the decision of the Brazilian government to prepay R$ 280 billion in Treasury loans to the BNDES and also to index the cost of BNDES funding to a 5-year market rate indexed to IPCA, through the substitution of TJLP for the new TLP. In addition to the legal aspects, the allocative and economic implications are assessed. It is argued that the traditional view, which circumscribes the mission of a development bank to the correction of deviations between the social and private return of projects intensive in externalities, should be combined with a vision emphasizing the stabilizing character, via the credit channel, of a development bank, acting in a relevant systemic scale, as a tool to offset the pro-cyclical and short term propensities of private finance. Furthermore, we should consider its contribution to development through the mitigation of the extreme severity of long-term credit rationing over private investment in Brazil linked to the historically high interest rates, that removes a bias against capital intensive projects and those with significant potential scale economies. The paper emphasizes the need for an evaluation of both the costs and the fiscal benefits derived from the banks' contribution to economic growth and financial stability. It also proposes a change in the rule of formation of the new TLP such as to preserve some degree of flexibility required for policy makers to be able to react to the challenges posed to monetary and credit policies in different economic contexts.

摘要 本文探讨了巴西政府提前向巴西国家开发银行（BNDES）偿还2800亿巴西雷亚尔国库贷款的决议，以及通过以新型长期利率（TLP）替换长期基准利率（TJLP），将该行融资成本与挂钩广义消费者价格指数（IPCA）的5年期市场利率挂钩的举措。除法律维度外，本文还评估了该举措的资源配置效应与经济影响。传统观点将开发银行（development bank）的使命限定为矫正外部性密集型项目的社会回报率与私人回报率之间的偏差，本文主张该认知应与另一视角相结合：后者强调开发银行可通过信贷渠道发挥稳定作用，以具备系统重要性的规模作为政策工具，抵消私人金融的顺周期性与短期化倾向。此外，还应考量开发银行通过缓解长期信贷配给对巴西私人投资的极端抑制作用来推动发展——巴西私人投资长期受制于历史性高利率，这类高利率催生了对资本密集型项目及具备显著规模经济潜力项目的歧视性偏向，而缓解信贷配给可消除这一偏向。本文强调，需同时评估开发银行对经济增长与金融稳定的贡献所带来的成本与财政收益。此外，本文还提议修订新型长期利率（TLP）的形成规则，以保留一定弹性空间，供政策制定者在不同经济环境下应对货币政策与信贷政策面临的各类挑战。