Annual total rainfall (mm per year) change from the 10% percentile, projected for 2066 - 2095 relative to the present (1976-2005) under the of the RCP 8.5 pathway conditions.

Annual total rainfall (mm per year) change from the 10% percentile projected for 2066-2095, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 8.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily rainfall averages, which are used to generate projections of annual change. The projections are generated using the high (RCP8.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 950ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties.

针对南部非洲区域，在典型浓度路径8.5（RCP 8.5）情景下，2066-2095年的年总降雨量（单位：毫米/年）相较于当前基准期（1976-2005年）第10百分位预估值的变化量。本图像的生成采用罗斯比中心区域模式（Rossby Centre regional model，RCA4），通过强迫其侧边界条件，将9个粗分辨率全球环流模式（General Circulation Models，GCM）降尺度至0.44°×0.44°的更高空间分辨率。该模式模拟的日降雨量平均值被用于计算年降雨量变化的预估结果。本次预估基于高排放情景（RCP8.5），该情景预计到2100年大气二氧化碳浓度将达到约950ppm。研究中计算得到的均方根误差（Root Mean Square Deviation，RMSD）可用于展示模式模拟残差预估结果的不确定性范围，并能相对反映不同空间区域预估不确定性的高低分布。