Using case study analysis to understand reasons for the discontinuation of international transportation projects

International transportation projects (ITPs) play an important role in eliminating cross-border and regional transportation bottlenecks, and the development of global trade. The ITPs face high uncertainties due to the dynamic external environment and the complexity of international stakeholders, hence are more often experiencing suspensions and cancellations during the whole project lifecycle from development and design to construction and operation. However, there is currently a lack of systematic analysis regarding the discontinuation of ITP lifecycle. This study adopts a case data mining method to analyze the discontinuation of ITPs and the impact factors from a systematic view of whole life cycle (WLC) perspective. The results reveal the dynamics of the impact factors for project suspension and cancellation. The project type and regional analysis reveal distinguished distributions of the key impact factors. The cognitive mapping of stakeholders discovers that the local government is the primary initiator of suspension and cancellation, and the foreign policy banks and host government institutions are the recipients of the negative consequences. Suggestions are provided to practitioners in civil engineering and researchers in ITPs to help better understand and systematically eliminate the discontinuation of the projects.

国际交通项目（International Transportation Projects，ITPs）在消除跨境与区域交通瓶颈、推动全球贸易发展方面发挥着重要作用。由于外部环境动态多变、国际利益相关方构成复杂，ITPs面临较高的不确定性，因此在从开发设计、施工至运营的项目全生命周期（Whole Life Cycle，WLC）中，更常出现项目暂停与取消的情形。当前针对ITPs全生命周期中断问题的系统性分析仍较为匮乏。本研究采用案例数据挖掘方法，从全生命周期视角出发，对ITPs的中断问题及其影响因素展开系统性分析。研究结果揭示了项目暂停与取消相关影响因素的动态特征。通过项目类型与区域维度的分析，可发现关键影响因素的分布存在显著差异。对利益相关方的认知映射分析显示，地方政府是项目暂停与取消的主要发起方，而国外政策性银行与东道国政府机构则是负面后果的承受者。本研究为土木工程领域从业者及ITPs相关研究者提供了参考建议，助力其更好地理解并系统性地消除项目中断问题。