The impact of energy demand on economic growth: A new empirical evidence for Madagascar

This study investigates the impact of energy demand on Madagascar's economic growth from 2007Q1 to 2022Q4. Drawing upon a rich dataset from Malagasy sources, we applied the ARDL bounds testing approach and found cointegration among the series. We found that, in the long run, electricity and petroleum consumption have positive significant effects on economic growth, while energy imports and global prices have negative significant effects. We further applied Granger-causality test based on Error Correction Model to examine causal relationships. The results revealed that in the short run, there are unidirectional causal effects running from electricity consumption, energy imports, and global prices to economic growth. The test also revealed that both energy demand and global prices have a long-run causal effect on economic growth. Our findings confirms that Madagascar is an energy-dependent economy, and provide valuable insights for policymakers to design effective energy policies that promote economic growth and energy security.

本研究考察了2007年第一季度至2022年第四季度期间，能源需求对马达加斯加经济增长的影响。依托来自马达加斯加本土的丰富数据集，我们采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）边界检验法，发现各序列间存在协整关系。研究结果显示，长期来看，电力与石油消费对经济增长具有显著正向影响，而能源进口与全球能源价格则对经济增长存在显著负向影响。我们进一步基于误差修正模型（Error Correction Model）开展格兰杰因果检验，以探究变量间的因果关系。检验结果表明，短期内电力消费、能源进口及全球能源价格对经济增长存在单向因果效应；同时，能源需求与全球能源价格均对经济增长存在长期因果效应。本研究结论证实马达加斯加属于能源依赖型经济体，并为政策制定者设计兼顾经济增长与能源安全的高效能源政策提供了宝贵参考。