The role of dispersal limitation and reforestation in shaping the distributional shift of a forest herb under climate change

Aim: Forest herbs might be unable to track shifts in habitat suitability due to rapid climate change and habitat fragmentation. In this study, we quantified the role of dispersal limitation and the potential mitigating effect of large-scale reforestation on the redistribution of the herbaceous forest plant species Primula elatior under climate change.

Location: Europe

Methods: High resolution (100 m) landscape-scale and macro-climatic variables were combined to predict range-wide habitat suitability using Maxent. Dispersal limitation was modelled, based on isolation-by-resistance (IBR) principles through integration of circuit theory and genomic data, to assess patch accessibility and metapopulation stability under climate change. Large scale reforestation was evaluated as a potential mitigating strategy by incorporating a land-use change scenario into the distribution and dispersal models.

Results: Landscape-scale variables contributed significantly to the distribution of P. e...

研究目的：森林草本植物可能因气候变化速率过快以及生境破碎化，无法追踪生境适宜性的变化。本研究量化了扩散限制的作用，以及大规模重新造林在气候变化背景下，对森林草本植物长茎报春花（Primula elatior）种群再分布的潜在缓解效应。
研究区域：欧洲
研究方法：本研究结合100米高分辨率的景观尺度变量与大气候变量，利用最大熵模型（Maxent）预测该物种的全分布范围生境适宜性。基于阻力距离隔离（Isolation-by-Resistance, IBR）原理，整合电路理论与基因组数据构建扩散限制模型，以评估气候变化下的斑块可达性与集合种群稳定性。此外，本研究将土地利用变化情景纳入分布与扩散模型，以此评估大规模重新造林作为潜在缓解策略的效果。
研究结果：景观尺度变量对P. e... 的分布具有显著贡献。