Ethnic Group Components of Demographic Change: Births, Deaths and Net Migration for Wards and Local Authorities of Great Britain, 1991-2001

This study provides estimates of births, deaths and net-migration, by ethnic group, for each electoral ward (England and Wales) and local authority area (England, Wales and Scotland), for the period July 1st, 1991 –June 30th, 2001. <br> <br> The study uses the eight-category classification of ethnic group: White, Caribbean, African, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other. Ethnic group is not included in civil registration of births and deaths in the UK. These estimates are based on estimates of fertility of each ethnic group in each locality, based on local child/woman ratios, common schedules of mortality, and estimates of ethnic group population consistent with the latest estimates of mid-year population for 1991 and 2001 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the General Register Office. Net migration is estimated indirectly as the residual after births and deaths are deducted from population change during the period 1991-2001, using standard methods of applied demography described in Simpson, Finney and Lomax (2008). There are no other estimates of demographic components of change for this period. <br> <br> The eight ethnic group categories are known to be more stable between the two censuses of 1991 and 2001 than other possible classifications that amalgamate the 10 ethnic group categories of 1991 with the 16 ethnic group categories of 2001. The least stable categories across this time are Caribbean, African, and Other.<br> <br> Further information is available on the <a href="http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/grants/RES-163-27-0011/read" title="Ethnic Group Population Change and Integration: a Demographic Approach to Small Area Ethnic Geographies">Ethnic Group Population Change and Integration: a Demographic Approach to Small Area Ethnic Geographies</a> ESRC Award web page.<br>

本研究针对1991年7月1日至2001年6月30日的时间区间，按族群分类，提供英格兰与威尔士各选举分区（electoral ward）、以及英格兰、威尔士与苏格兰各地方当局辖区的出生、死亡与净迁移人口估算值。

本研究采用八类族群分类体系：白人、加勒比裔、非洲裔、印度裔、巴基斯坦裔、孟加拉裔及其他族群。需特别说明的是，英国民事登记系统并未在出生与死亡登记中收录族群信息。本次估算基于以下依据：各地区各族群的生育率估算（以当地儿童/女性人口比为核心指标）、统一的死亡模式表，以及与英国国家统计局（Office for National Statistics, ONS）和总登记署（General Register Office）发布的1991年、2001年年中人口最新估算值相一致的族群人口估算结果。净迁移人口通过1991-2001年期间的人口变化量减去同期出生与死亡人数的残差间接估算，采用了Simpson、Finney与Lomax（2008）所述的应用人口学标准方法。目前尚无该时期人口变化各构成成分的其他公开估算结果。

相较于将1991年的10类族群分类与2001年的16类族群分类合并的其他分类方案，本次采用的八类族群分类在1991与2001两次人口普查间的稳定性更强。在此时间跨度内，稳定性最差的族群类别为加勒比裔、非洲裔及其他族群。

更多详细信息可访问经济与社会研究理事会（Economic and Social Research Council, ESRC）资助项目网页，项目标题为《族群人口变化与融合：小区域族群地理的人口学研究方法》，链接为http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/grants/RES-163-27-0011/read。