Economics of Movie Industry: A Data Analytics of Box Office Revenues for Developing a Measure for Prediction of Movies Financial Success

Purpose: This study analyses how modern data analytics techniques can help us understand the success of movies, as measured by their box office or attributed Oscars. Methodology: Box office revenue data on the first week after the release of the movie as drawn from www.boxofficemojo.com. Findings: Predicting box office revenue based on data available before the release of the movie remains difficult, even with state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction markets are a remarkably powerful tool at predicting success at Oscars. A moderate amount of controversy, as measured by the number of underlying themes raised by movie reviewers, may prove to be helpful in obtaining an Academy Award for Best Picture.

研究目的：本研究旨在分析现代数据分析技术如何助力我们理解电影的成功表现，该表现以票房收入或所获奥斯卡奖项作为衡量标准。研究方法：采用从www.boxofficemojo.com获取的电影上映首周票房收入数据。研究结果：即便运用当前最先进的技术，基于电影上映前可获取的数据预测其票房收入依然极具挑战性；预测市场则是预测奥斯卡获奖成功率的极为有效的工具。此外，以影评人提出的核心主题数量衡量的适度争议量，或有助于影片斩获奥斯卡最佳影片奖。