Debating US Military Strategy in the Persian Gulf: What is the Way Forward?

Abstract Should the US strategy toward the Gulf be one of offshore balancing or one of deep engagement? The debate on US grand strategy lacks solid empirical ground. I address this issue by providing a study of the US´ role as the Gulf’s security provider. I investigate the extent to which distinct military strategies have affected the stability of the region. My findings show no clear correlation between increased US military presence and a reduction in either the incidence or the intensity of regional armed conflict, possibly lending credibility to the arguments of the advocates of a strategy of offshore balancing.

摘要：美国对海湾地区的战略应采取离岸制衡（offshore balancing）还是深度参与（deep engagement）？当前关于美国大战略的辩论缺乏坚实的实证基础。本文通过研究美国作为海湾地区安全提供者的角色，对这一议题展开探讨。本文考察了不同军事战略对该地区稳定的影响程度。研究结果显示，美国军事部署的增强与地区武装冲突发生频次及激烈程度的降低之间并无明确关联，这或可为离岸制衡战略支持者的论点提供可信度支撑。