Vulnerability and climate change: socio-environmental analysis in a mesoregion of Amazonia

Abstract The study of socio-environmental vulnerability associated with climate change is one of the topics most discussed by the international scientific community. The effects of climate change on society stem from different causes and effects; their analysis must take into account the cultural, economic and social context of a population. Thus, studies involving risks associated with extreme weather events must be done in an integrated and interdisciplinary way. In this context, the present research aims to contribute to vulnerability analysis in the metropolitan mesoregion of Belém, with a view to reducing the effects caused by climate and social changes. In order to do so, the General Vulnerability Index (GVI) was applied, based on socioeconomic, epidemiological and climatic indicators from 2000 to 2010. The results found that the municipality of Belém had the highest value of GVI (0. 61), indicating a high vulnerability, presenting the highest indexes of climatic (1.00) and epidemiological (0.76) vulnerability. On the other hand, the municipality of Bujaru has a low vulnerability, with a GVI value of 0.14, explained by the minimum value of the index of climate vulnerability (0.00) and low indices of epidemiological (0.03) and socioeconomic vulnerability (0.38). We expect that this study may support the management of public policies for the municipalities and encourage studies of socio-environmental vulnerability in the Amazon region, with an interdisciplinary approach.

摘要 与气候变化相关的社会环境脆弱性研究是国际科学界重点探讨的议题之一。气候变化对社会的影响成因复杂、表现多样，相关分析需充分考量特定人群所处的文化、经济与社会语境。因此，针对极端天气事件相关风险的研究需采用集成化与跨学科的研究范式开展。在此背景下，本研究旨在为贝伦都市中观区域的脆弱性分析提供支撑，以期减缓气候变化与社会变迁所带来的影响。为此，本研究采用综合脆弱性指数（General Vulnerability Index, GVI），其构建基于2000年至2010年的社会经济、流行病学与气候相关指标。研究结果显示，贝伦市的综合脆弱性指数得分最高（0.61），表明其脆弱性等级较高，同时拥有最高的气候脆弱性指数（1.00）与流行病学脆弱性指数（0.76）。反观布亚鲁市，其脆弱性等级较低，综合脆弱性指数得分为0.14，这一结果可归因于其气候脆弱性指数为最低值（0.00），同时流行病学脆弱性指数（0.03）与社会经济脆弱性指数（0.38）均处于较低水平。本研究期望可为相关市域的公共政策管理提供决策支撑，并推动亚马逊地区采用跨学科范式开展社会环境脆弱性相关研究。