Replication Data for: "Electoral Volatility and Party Polarization as Challenges to Democratic Stability in Latin America"

Democracy in Latin America is under extraordinary strain because of polarization. This paper aims to investigate the drivers of party polarization, focusing on electoral volatility in 18 Latin American countries from 1993-2018. Extant studies suggest that volatility influences polarization by incentivizing parties to adopt polarizing strategies to secure survival. By utilizing the Latin American Electoral Volatility Dataset (LAEVD), this paper employs a more precise measure of polarization compared to previous studies and controls for additional variables. Moreover, the theoretical underpinnings will be critically assessed and further developed, especially regarding new party entry. My results diverge from previous studies suggesting that Latin American democracies become more polarized as they age due to the entry of new parties. This reflects the persistent struggle for party systems in the region to institutionalize. Avoiding democracy’s demise in Latin America requires sustainable party building to solidify electoral competition and regain citizens’ trust in democratic institutions.

拉丁美洲的民主正因极化现象承受着前所未有的严峻压力。本文旨在探究政党极化（party polarization）的驱动因素，重点聚焦1993年至2018年间18个拉丁美洲国家的选举波动性（electoral volatility）。
现有研究指出，选举波动性会通过激励政党采取极化策略以维系自身存续，进而对极化程度产生影响。本文依托拉丁美洲选举波动性数据集（Latin American Electoral Volatility Dataset，LAEVD），采用了相较于既往研究更为精准的极化衡量指标，并控制了更多额外变量。此外，本文还将对相关理论基础展开批判性评估与进一步拓展，尤其围绕新政党准入这一议题。
本文的研究结论与既往研究存在分歧：既往研究认为，拉丁美洲的民主政体随着存续时间增长，会因新政党的加入而愈发极化；而本文结果则显示并非如此。这一发现折射出该地区政党体系在推进制度化进程中始终面临的艰巨挑战。若要避免拉丁美洲民主走向衰亡，就需要开展可持续的政党建设工作，以巩固选举竞争格局，并重新赢得公民对民主制度的信任。