Replication Data for: Foundering on fallacies: theorizing the Eurozone’s self-harming mercantilism

The Eurozone’s export-oriented policy regime and pursuit of trade surpluses remains thoroughly puzzling. Rooted in overly strict fiscal policies, inequality and underinvestment; undermining growth and contributing to trade tensions‒ it defies economic self-interest. This paper develops an analytical framework and research agenda to confront this puzzle. It argues that these policies are self-harming, but are nonetheless pursued, because of three fallacies that obscure the cost-benefit calculus attached to them. These fallacies are rooted in the empirical problem of observational equivalence: the same observed surplus can be driven by different underlying processes, and its net benefit will depend on our assumptions about these drivers. The first fallacy is mistaking external enablers for domestic competitiveness— interpreting export success to be linked to domestic reform, while it was largely explained by better links to faster growing trading partners. The second fallacy is mistaking weak imports for strong exports— interpreting surpluses as ‘winning,’ even when they are not driven by superior exports, but sluggish imports. The third fallacy is mismeasuring multinational firms’ contributions to national exports— interpreting profit shifting and assets stashed in low tax jurisdictions as export performance. Germany and Ireland, paradigmatic ‘success cases of austerity’ are used to expand the argument.

欧元区以出口为导向的政策体系及其对贸易顺差的追求，始终令人深感困惑。该政策体系植根于过度严苛的财政政策、不平等问题与投资不足，既损害了经济增长，又加剧了贸易紧张局势，完全违背了经济自身的利益逻辑。本文构建了一个分析框架与研究议程，以破解这一谜题。本文指出，这些政策虽有损自身利益却仍被推行，根源在于三大谬误掩盖了其对应的成本收益权衡逻辑。这些谬误源于实证研究中的观测等价性问题：同一观测到的贸易顺差可能由不同的内在机制驱动，其净收益取决于我们对这些驱动因素的假设。第一大谬误是将外部助力误判为国内竞争力：将出口成功归因于国内改革，而实际上出口成功很大程度上源于与增长更快的贸易伙伴建立了更紧密的贸易联系。第二大谬误是将进口疲软误判为出口强劲：将贸易顺差视为"胜利"，即便顺差并非源于优质出口，而是源自进口增长乏力。第三大谬误是对跨国企业对本国出口贡献的测算失误：将利润转移与藏匿于低税收辖区的资产，误判为出口实绩。本文以堪称"紧缩政策成功典范"的德国与爱尔兰为例，对上述论点进行拓展阐释。