The Impact of Shock-Responsive Social Cash Transfers: Evidence from an Aggregate Shock in Kenya

This study examines the effects of a nationwide shock-responsive social cash transfer scheme during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on highly risk susceptible informal economy households in Kenya. Leveraging primary in-person survey data in a doubly robust difference-in-differences framework, we find that households receiving shock-responsive cash transfers were less likely to encounter income loss, poverty, and food scarcity compared to households not receiving them. The scheme also reduced the likelihood of engaging in costly risk coping such as selling productive assets. When comparing different pillars of the scheme with varying degrees of shock-responsiveness, we observe that the impacts were statistically significant only when payment cycles were pooled and the transfers were vertically scaled. The study adds to the global policy discussion on developing effective shock-responsive interventions, underscoring the merits of shock-responsive social cash transfers during crises.

本研究考察了新冠疫情期间全国性冲击响应型社会现金转移支付计划（shock-responsive social cash transfer scheme）的实施效果，重点聚焦肯尼亚境内高度风险易感的非正规经济家庭。本研究采用双重稳健双重差分（doubly robust difference-in-differences）分析框架，结合实地一手调研数据开展实证分析，结果表明：相较于未获得该类现金转移支付的家庭，获取冲击响应型现金转移支付的家庭更不易遭遇收入损失、贫困与粮食短缺问题；同时该计划还降低了家庭采取变卖生产性资产这类高成本风险应对行为的概率。通过对比该计划不同冲击响应程度的实施模块后发现，仅在合并支付周期且实现转移支付纵向扩围的情况下，其政策效果才具备统计学显著性。本研究为全球范围内探讨如何构建有效的冲击响应型干预政策提供了实证支撑，凸显了危机时期实施冲击响应型社会现金转移支付的重要价值。