Interactive life-history traits predict sensitivity of plants and animals to temporal autocorrelation

Temporal autocorrelation in demographic processes is an important aspect of population dynamics, but a comprehensive examination of its effects on different life-history strategies is lacking. We use matrix populations models from 454 plant and animal populations to simulate stochastic population growth rates (log λs) under different temporal autocorrelations in demographic rates, using simulated and observed covariation among rates. We then test for differences in sensitivities, or changes, of log λs to changes in autocorrelation among two major axes of life-history strategies, obtained from phylogenetically-informed principal component analysis: the fast-slow and semelparous-iteroparous continua. Fast life histories exhibit highest sensitivities to simulated autocorrelation in demographic rates across reproductive strategies. Slow life histories are less sensitive to temporal autocorrelation, but their sensitivities increase among highly iteroparous species. We provide cross-taxonomic...

种群统计过程（demographic processes）中的时间自相关是种群动态的重要研究维度，但目前仍缺乏对其在不同生活史策略下所产生影响的全面系统性考察。我们采用来自454个动、植物种群的矩阵种群模型（matrix populations models），结合模拟与实测得到的种群统计速率间的协变关系，模拟不同种群统计速率时间自相关情境下的随机种群增长率（log λ_s）。随后，我们基于系统发育导向主成分分析（phylogenetically-informed principal component analysis）得到的两大生活史策略主轴——快慢生活史连续谱（fast-slow continuum）与单次-多次生殖连续谱（semelparous-iteroparous continuum），检验log λ_s对自相关变化的敏感性（即变化幅度）在不同生活史策略类群间的差异。在各类生殖策略中，快节奏生活史类群对模拟的种群统计速率时间自相关表现出最高的敏感性。慢节奏生活史类群对时间自相关的敏感性较低，但在高度多次生殖的物种中，其敏感性会有所提升。本研究提供跨分类群的……