Macroeconomic & Welfare Effects of Energy Policies in the GCC: MEGIR-SA model

Executive Summary:MEGIR – Model with Energy, Growth and Intergenerational Redistribution – investigates the long-run implications for growth and equity across generations of different energy policies. It is the first general equilibrium model with overlapping generations to be developed and applied for energy policy analysis in the Arabian Peninsula. The version presented here is parameterized on Saudi data. It is a new and thoroughly revised version of the model developed for western countries by Gonand and Jouvet (2015). It is designed specifically for the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly insofar as it incorporates an oil-exporting sector and public finances benefiting massively and directly from oil exports.
Its range of applications goes from modeling the impact on growth and inter-generational equity of higher energy efficiency, to the assessment of the effects of different potential fuel mixes and/or end-use energy prices on long-term growth and welfare distribution by age cohort. The MEGIR-SA model is also well suited to being adapted to include a sovereign wealth fund or for other oil exporting countries. The main advantage of MEGIR-SA is its ability to analyze precisely and simultaneously the effect of energy policies on potential growth and on intergenerational equity. This has some unavoidable cost in terms of modeling other aspects of the economy – e.g., the modeling of the supply side is more simplified than in models incorporating input-output matrix. This paper provides the detailed technical description of the model that is used in other, companion, policy-oriented, KAPSARC papers. It also gives the characteristics of the baseline, no-reform scenario for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) as assessed by MEGIR-SA
About the Project
Increasing energy productivity holds some of the greatest possibilities for enhancing the welfare countries get out of their energy systems. It also recasts energy efficiency in terms of boosting competitiveness and wealth, more powerfully conveying its profound benefits to society.
KAPSARC and UNESCWA have initiated this project to explore the energy productivity potential of the Arab region, starting with the six GCC countries and later extending to other countries.
Aimed at policymakers, this project highlights the social gains from energy productivity investments, where countries are currently at, and pathways to achieving improved performance in this area.

执行摘要：MEGIR——能源、增长与代际再分配模型（Model with Energy, Growth and Intergenerational Redistribution）——旨在探究不同能源政策对各代际群体增长与公平性的长期影响。本模型是首个面向阿拉伯半岛能源政策分析开发并应用的世代交叠一般均衡模型。本次发布的版本以沙特阿拉伯的相关数据进行参数校准。该模型是Gonand与Jouvet（2015）为西方国家开发的模型的全新修订版，专门针对海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（Gulf Cooperation Council，简称GCC）成员国的经济场景设计，尤其融入了石油出口部门与直接大规模受益于石油出口的公共财政体系。

其应用场景涵盖：模拟提升能源效率对增长与代际公平的影响，评估不同潜在燃料结构和/或终端用能价格对长期增长及分年龄群体福利分配的效应。MEGIR-SA模型同样适配主权财富基金的相关建模需求，亦可推广至其他石油出口国家。MEGIR-SA的核心优势在于能够同时精准分析能源政策对潜在增长与代际公平的影响，不过这也带来了不可避免的建模成本：例如，其供给侧建模相较于纳入投入产出矩阵的模型更为简化。

本文件详细阐述了该模型的技术细节，相关应用将在沙特阿拉伯国王石油研究中心（King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center，简称KAPSARC）的其他政策导向型配套研究论文中呈现。同时，本文还给出了基于MEGIR-SA模型测算的沙特阿拉伯王国（Kingdom of Saudi Arabia，简称KSA）基准无改革情景的各项特征。

项目背景
提升能源生产率，是各国从自身能源系统中获取更多福利的重要路径之一。该理念将能源效率重新诠释为提升竞争力与创造财富的手段，更有效地向社会传递其深远价值。
沙特阿拉伯国王石油研究中心（King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center，简称KAPSARC）与联合国西亚经济社会委员会（United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia，简称UNESCWA）共同发起本项目，旨在探究阿拉伯地区的能源生产率潜力，初期覆盖海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会六国，后续将推广至其他国家。
本项目面向政策制定者，旨在阐明当前各国在能源生产率投资领域可获得的社会收益，并梳理提升该领域绩效的可行路径。