A General Method for Quantifying Risk Using Probabilistic Graph Models

This new method represents a novel approach where graph-theoretic models used in an analysis rest on a hierarchical network of Modules, each module a model of some subsystem. It provides a complete framework for resolving all statistical dependencies and probabilistic uncertainties.In a short series of steps, the method measures costs, elapsed times, vulnerability scores and the overall risk, reliability or safety as a threat - or multiple simultaneous threats - progress through the hierarchy.Economical and efficient, the method consists of at most 100 vertices and requires an insignificant amount of computation time. Four support files needed to collect all the data and to execute the method have been included with the research manuscript. These can be conveniently accessed using their respective Document Object Identifier ("DOI") included in the paper.