Technology Transfer Survey: Tanzania, 2016

This survey was administered by Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in conjunction with their Annual Survey of Industrial Production (ASIP) in 2016. The survey was administered to plant managers and was designed to elicit information about (i) formal links between foreign and domestic firms; (ii) the mechanisms by which knowledge is transferred and (iii) the benefits obtained from foreign firms.<p>For the past decade, Sub-Saharan Africa has been growing, yet growth is not the same as structural transformation. China's development trajectory since 1980 provides an example of how a government focused on modernization can marshal foreign capital and technology to assist in the reduction of poverty and economic transformation in manufacturing and agriculture. In Africa, China is largely seen as a competitor for local firms, primarily through imports. This competition can be devastating in some countries and some sectors, driving local firms out of business. Yet on the other hand, growing Chinese investment in African manufacturing and contract farming can also offer opportunities for joint ventures with local firms, training, and diffusion of more productive technologies. If this were to follow Asian experience, Chinese firms could be catalysts for local firms to move into manufactured exports, although they might also be footloose investors, moving on with only fleeting impact on local knowledge. In agriculture, Chinese investment might also be enclave, with little connection to local farmers - the picture presented in fears of &quot;land grabbing&quot; - or it might follow the pattern laid out by foreign investors in China, with out-growers, demonstration farms, and technology and skills transfers.

Our earlier research suggested that Chinese firms are thinking strategically about backward linkages. For example, at least five Chinese shoe manufacturers we interviewed in 2009 had moved their shoe-making assembly lines to Nigeria, while still importing uppers and soles from China. In 2012, one company was in discussions with their Chinese supplier about moving to Nigeria to produce soles locally from Nigerian rubber. Similarly, we have identified Chinese contract farming investments and commercial agriculture projects with demonstration farms, advisers, and input supplies in places like Mali, Zimbabwe, and Malawi.
This project will enable a more refined picture of the actual scope and impact of Chinese investment and the potential and experience of technology transfer in commercial agriculture and agro-industry. We will combine multiple methods: database construction, scoping studies, cluster surveys, a national survey, and eight paired, comparative case studies, following an approach tested in our earlier research on Chinese agro-industrial and commercial agriculture engagement in Ethiopia (2011-2014), and Chinese commercial agricultural investment in Zambia and Zimbabwe (2013). The scoping studies will allow us to better map existing Chinese (and other) investment in agro-industry and commercial agriculture, while the cluster surveys will provide an overview of existing linkages and opportunities for technology transfer. A further level of depth will be obtained through adding a technology-transfer module to two national surveys of manufacturers. Finally, eight in-depth, paired case studies will complement the survey research by using process-tracing to compare specific experiences of agro-industrial FDI and technology transfer in China, with Chinese and a similar non-Chinese experience in Africa. For example, we will study the institutional framework and approach that allowed the Thai firm CP Group to become China's largest foreign investor in the Chinese poultry industry, with significant technology spinoffs, and compare this with the spinoffs and technology transfer from significant Chinese and South African investors in Zambia's poultry industry (Zhongken Farm and Astral Foods). The output of the research will be a far more robust basis for analysis of the current and future possibilities for technology transfer in China's African investment, and guidelines for governments and development partners to derive maximum benefit from these opportunities.</p>

本调查由坦桑尼亚国家统计局（National Bureau of Statistics, NBS）于2016年联合其年度工业生产调查（Annual Survey of Industrial Production, ASIP）共同实施。本次调查面向工厂管理人员开展，旨在获取三类信息：一是外资企业与本土企业间的正式关联；二是知识转移的具体路径；三是本土企业从外资企业处获得的收益。

近十年来，撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济持续增长，但增长并不等同于结构转型。1980年以来中国的发展轨迹，为聚焦现代化建设的政府如何统筹利用外资与技术，助力减贫以及推动制造业与农业领域的经济转型提供了典范。在非洲，中国企业常被视为本土企业的竞争对手，这种竞争主要通过进口贸易实现。在部分国家与行业中，此类竞争可能带来毁灭性影响，迫使本土企业破产。但另一方面，中国对非洲制造业与订单农业的投资不断增加，也为与本土企业组建合资企业、开展技能培训以及推广更具生产力的技术提供了机遇。若遵循亚洲地区的发展经验，中国企业有望成为推动本土企业进军制成品出口市场的催化剂，但也可能成为流动型投资者，仅对当地知识体系产生短暂影响便撤离。在农业领域，中国投资可能形成与当地农户脱节的飞地经济模式——即外界担忧的“圈地”场景——也可能效仿在华外资企业的发展路径，通过订单农户、示范农场以及技术与技能转移的方式开展合作。

我们此前的研究表明，中国企业正战略性地布局后向关联产业链。例如，2009年我们访谈的至少五家中国制鞋企业已将制鞋装配线转移至尼日利亚，但仍从中国进口鞋面上底与鞋底。2012年，其中一家企业正与其中国供应商磋商，计划将鞋底生产转移至尼日利亚，利用当地橡胶实现本土化生产。类似地，我们在马里、津巴布韦、马拉维等地发现了中国企业的订单农业投资与商业化农业项目，配套设置了示范农场、技术顾问与农资供应体系。

本项目将更细致地刻画中国投资的实际规模与影响，以及商业化农业与农工产业领域的技术转移潜力与实践经验。我们将结合多种研究方法：数据库构建、范围界定研究、集群调查、全国性调查，以及八组配对比较案例研究，该研究框架已在我们此前的研究中得到验证——包括2011至2014年针对中国在埃塞俄比亚农工产业与商业化农业参与情况的研究，以及2013年针对中国在赞比亚与津巴布韦商业化农业投资的研究。范围界定研究将帮助我们更清晰地梳理当前中国（及其他国家）在农工产业与商业化农业领域的投资布局，而集群调查则可全面呈现现有产业关联与技术转移机遇。我们还将在两项全国性制造业调查中增设技术转移模块，以进一步深化研究维度。最后，八组深度配对案例研究将作为调查研究的补充：通过过程追踪法，对比中国农工产业外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）与技术转移的典型实践，以及非洲地区中资企业与同类非中资企业的相关经验。例如，我们将研究泰国正大集团（CP Group）成为中国最大家禽行业外资投资方的制度框架与运作模式，该项目实现了显著的技术外溢；随后将其与赞比亚家禽行业的中资与南非外资企业（中垦农场与阿斯特拉尔食品（Astral Foods））所产生的技术外溢与技术转移情况进行对比。

本研究的最终成果将为分析中国对非投资中技术转移的当前现状与未来潜力提供更坚实的分析基础，并为各国政府与发展伙伴机构提供行动指南，以从这些合作机遇中获取最大收益。